Reseach On The Effects Of RMB Real Exchange Rate On China's Manufactured Exports Structure

With the raise level of opening up of China and the improvement of socialist market economy system reform,exchange rate,one of the most important economist levers is increasingly playing a fundamental role in the allocation of resources. Premier Wen Jiabao of the state council on March 5th in the fourth session of the 11th National People's Congress, said "This year will further advance the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism,and the enhance of the flexibility of RMB exchange rate will becomes possible.'Adopting a more flexible exchange-rate regime means both opportunities and challenges ahead. Aware of the important role of manufactured goods exports in China's export trade, this paper refers to the evolutionary tendency or process of RMB actual exchange rate and manufactured goods export structure, mainly studies the influence mechanism and effects of long-term exchange rate movements exert on various items in manufactured goods.First, the paper established the theoretical framework of the exchange rate pass-through mechanisms, explained the reasons for the different responses shown by different categories of products when the exchange rate changes from the perspectives of inputs combination, market structure and the effects of transnational corporations, laying a theoretical foundation for further analysis.In the part of empirical studies, the paper established the revised. export demand equation based on the Imperfect Substitutes Model, and investigated this issue using a panel data set including China's manufactured exports to 20 countries. Finally, the paper pointed out that the thing we must deal with was to promote a shift in the growth mode of trade and optimize the composition of export commodities, followed by special operational policy measures. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, the article seeks to clarify that the continued appreciation of real exchange rate of RMB will affect the competitiveness of manufactured exports, moreover, due to different product categories with different elasticity of exchange rates, the negative impact of exchange rate appreciation on exports of labor-intensive products is Serious than that on capital and technology-intensive exports, thus to a certain degree, the appreciation of exchange rate will stimulate the restructuring and upgrading of manufactured exports.