Research On Energy Consumption Models For Urban Transportation

ABSTRACT:In recent years, domestic energy resources face serious shortage, requiring import complement. By 2010, the degree of dependence on foreign oil has been over 50%. The traffic mostly depends on scarce supplies of oil fuel, thus, the situation is grim. Meanwhile, with the acceleration of urbanization and the improvement of living standards, the traffic demand of citizens has increased year by year, and the private car ownership reveals a trend of dramatic increase. As a result, the urban transportation system is becoming more complex, and the urban traffic has become a big energy consumer. Therefore, it is necessary that considering from an angle of sustainable development, study on energy consumption models for urban transportation, analyze its influencing factors and seeking energy-saving breakthroughs, just for achieving the goals of urban traffic developing with environment in harmony.Firstly, this paper reviews and summarizes the research accomplishment in the energy consumption field, and analyzes their application property. In order to find out their own energy consumption characters separately of different traffic modes, this thesis sorts out the conventional energy consuming indexes, analyzes the influential energy consumption factors of different traffic modes, and trys to reclassify the urban passenger traffic modes depending on their transporting characteristics.Secondly, based on the Laspeyres index, this paper constructs an energy consumption model for urban transportation, and following this model, this paper takes the Beijing (2005-2009) urban traffic as an empirical research, and focus on analyzing the influence amongdifferent factors. Take the model mentioned above as the basis, the energy cost rate is introduced in as a new parameter to update the model, and according to the updated model, the public transport energy cost of Beijing in 2010 is measured.Finally, based on the structural relations of energy consumption model for urban traffic, a predictable model of extrapolation is proposed. Take 2010 as the base period and 2015 as the forecast year, this paper predicts the energy consumption cost of public traffic system in Beijing, and emphatically discussed the cost changes when energy cost rate and bus quantities vary. This paper can provide reference for energy consumption models research and structural adjustment for urban transportation.