Research And Application Of Urban Energy Forecasting Model

Energy is an important resource, which is essential to human survival, civilization and economic development. In recent years, our country will complete the process of industrialization, urbanization and modernization. China will become a major energy consumer of the world. As a result, it will lead to a substantial increase in energy consumption.China has a big total energy reserves, but per-capita primary energy consumption is short. The prospect of energy is still optimistic. Therefore, it’s necessary to accelerate transformation of energy development mode, adjust energy consumption and production structure and scientifically predict energy consumption and production situation of China. It has great significance for energy regulation and planning, promotion of Kunming’s GDP and construction of a harmonious and resource-efficient society.Based on energy system theory and detailed analysis of energy consumption and production present situation in Kunming, this paper predicts and analyzes energy consumption and production in Kunming, finds out problems existing in Kunming energy system and makes detailed recommendations about development of Kunming’s energy industry, comprehensive using multiple linear regression forecast model, GM (1,1) prediction model in grey theory and optimization of GM (1,1) prediction model in grey theory.First, this paper discusses the relationship between energy problem and social coordinated development. Then this paper analyzes current situation of energy development and energy conservation pressure in China.Secondly, this paper introduces related concepts of energy system and content, classification, significance and major prediction methods of energy prediction.Thirdly, this paper comprehensive analyzes main factors affecting total energy consumption in Kunming, establishes prediction models and inspects accuracy of prediction models.At last, this paper analyzes energy consumption characteristics and energy structure of Kunming from aspects of energy production and energy consumption and finds out problems existing in Kunming energy system. Then this paper predicts raw coal production and total energy consumption by using prediction models analyzes the energy use of Kunming and makes detailed recommendations about development of Kunming’s energy industry. Energy saving is priority. Improve utilization efficiency of all kinds of energy, especially coal. Adjust energy structure of Kunming, strengthen supervision to prevent outflow of energy resources. Increase investment of energy industry, reform technology innovation and improve efficiency of energy use and production to reduce energy dependence on external provinces. Accelerate reform of energy industry system. Built up oil reserve system to ensure energy security. Strengthen government’s macroeconomic regulation and control function, formulate corresponding policies and regulations to provide institutional guarantee for development and effective utilization of energy industry.