An Analysis On Development Tendency And Development Stages Of China Railway Industry

China railway industry grow out from nothing during a hundred years past, which has experienced various periods as the large-scale development, the hindered development, the resumption development, and the rapid development, etc., China railway industry has shown an obvious stage characteristic.According to utility theory, this paper defines the railway industry utility to measure its development level; it analyses the railway industry life cycle characteristics based on the industry life cycle; and it proposed the long-term and ideal type railway industry trend curve and development law by analyzing utility function; moreover, it defines the railway industry technical innovation in quantitative and qualitative changes, as well as the 4 stages'impact on railway industry of technology development process-introduction, digestion and absorption, improvement and bypass stages. In order to quantitatively analyze the utility of China railway industry, it sets an index system constitute by 8 variables, which analyzes the 1949-2009 statistics data by factor analysis and principal component analysis, and draws China railway industry trend curves and matched curves. By comparing development trend and characteristics of China railway industry development and railway industry life cycle, it divides China railway industry development trend into stages, and analyzes technical innovation of these stages as the motive force of industry development.Based on quantitative and qualitative analysis, this paper raised a method to analyze China railway industry development trend and its stages'division; it also provides a reliable basis on China railway industry development driving force-technical innovation. The following conclusions can be demonstrated:(1) Railway industry life cycle trend is both of the long-term type and mutant type, Chinese railway industry trend consist with the trend of railway industrial life cycle; (2) China railway industry development is divided into 4 stages:germination stage, re-germination stage, growth stage, and a new round transition life cycle stage based on China railway industry trend based on China railway industry level evaluation model and the calculated utility score; (3) China railway industry development has leaped forward to the next industry life cycle stage, and the technical innovation is the driving force of its sustainable development. At this stage, the promotion of China railway industry should be based on existing lines'operation improvement, and high-speed railways'development, and expanding passenger and freight capacity.