| Finance is the core of the modern economy, and the bank system is the core of the finance. The bank'security is related to the financial stability and the macro-economic operation. Owing to the special domestic circumstances in climacteric, there is natural relationship between the real estate industries, which is the backbone of economic, and the vulnerability of China's banking system. After the financial crisis,4 trillion' stimulus resulted in the credit blowout of the banking system, which concentrated on the real estate, and it leaded to the risk accumulation of the banking system. The fluctuation of the real estate price will exacerbate the vulnerability of the banking system, which characterized of the lower liberalization.Taking the relationship of the real estate and the banking system as cut-in point, on the foundation of the transmission mechanism between the fluctuation of the real estate price and the vulnerability of China's banking system, after combing with the current circumstance and compared with Japan, this paper has drew a conclusion that we will not repeat the mistake of Japan's 80. In addition, this study has also concluded that the macroeconomic factors affect the vulnerability of the banking system most, on the foundation of this, constructed ECM model between the fluctuation of the real estate price and the vulnerability of the banking system. After ADF test and Granger causality test, this study has concluded that there is causality and long-term equilibrium between the fluctuation of the real estate price and the vulnerability of the banking system, and these years the fluctuation of the real estate price affects the vulnerability of the banking system much more, when the influence is excessive, the self-modulator will not improve the vulnerability of the banking system. Finally, it has given relevant suggestions on the foundation of theoretical analysis and empirical test. |
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