Research On Shantytowns Transformation Based On System Dynamics

Currently, China is in the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization with urban population sharply increasd and housing security issues becoming daily prominent. Shantytowns are the product of history of socio-economic development in China. Residents of shantytowns are not only in poor living conditions, but most of them are of low income. Central Committee pays great attention to the housing and living conditions of inhabitants of the shantytowns. The State Council made a decision that comprehensively launched the transformation of urban shantytowns and those in state-owned mining cities in 2009. It is also planned that five years should be taken to complete the transformation process of shantytowns around the whole country. Shantytowns will no longer exist then. It is necessary to have some discussions on relevant issues in order to realize the successful implementation of this livelihood project.In this dissertation, shantytowns transformation is taken as research object, and all the elements of shantytowns transformation, together with their relations are treated as a system. System dynamics modeling theory and modeling procedures are used to set up the system dynamics model of shantytowns transformation. After definition and analysis on the basic issues of the system, causal relationship between the four subsystems are analyzed and corresponding causal loop diagrams as well as integral causal loop diagram are drew. Then all types of variables are determined, system flow charts of each subsystem and intergral one are drew and the establishment of dynamics equations follows. Afterwards, Vensim is used to make simulation of shantytowns transformation in Harbin. Based on data of shantytowns transformation in Harbin, initial state are set according to the established system dynamics model. Later, tests are done against results to discuss the availability and effectiveness of the model. Finally, analyses are done on the existing policy system and current problems of Harbin shantytowns transformation with countermeasures and suggestions that job improvement, housing resource opening up and multi-channel financing put forward. The effect of policy recommendations are tested with the sensitivity analysis according to the output of simulation to ensure that the recommendations are practical, effective and enable to offer help to the continued implementation and successful completion of Harbin shantytowns transformation.