System Dynamics Simulation Of Village Transformation

The formation and development of a village are the result of the combined action of internal and external factors.External factors include regional development policies,investment environment,etc.,while internal factors mainly include farmers,land and industry with "people" as the core and their interactions.Under certain conditions of the external environment,the village is an independent social and economic system,and its evolution is the result of the interaction of each constituent body.Therefore,it is of great significance to explore the internal structure and evolution rules of villages from a systematic perspective to promote the overall transformation of villages and rural revitalization.Based on the method of system dynamics,this paper divides the village system into three sub-systems of farmers,land and industry,and constructs the dynamic conceptual model of village transformation.Taking Wangzuitou village,Lantian county,Xi 'an city,Shaanxi province as an example,based on the remote sensing image of phase 6 and the survey data of farmers in 2016,the process of transformation and development between 1980 and 2016 was sorted out and the dynamic model of the village was constructed.After the model passed the test,the removal rate,recovery rate,mechanization rate and proportion of aging population with the maximum sensitivity were taken as control variables.Four kinds of simulation scenarios were designed and substituted into the dynamic model embedded with the coupling coordination degree evaluation module for simulation and evaluation.On this basis,countermeasures and Suggestions were proposed.The results show that :(1)from 1980 to 2016,Wangzuitou village experienced a rapid transformation from traditional agricultural planting industry to agricultural and sidelong product processing industry.The evolution of industry has experienced three periods: industrial formation period(1980~1990),scale expansion period(1990~2010)and stable development period(after 2010).Land use differentiates the industrial land such as sundeck and storage land.The emigration population increases year by year,population hollowing out and aging problem aggravate year by year.(2)the coupling coordination degree model was used to evaluate the four schemes,and the optimal scheme was the scheme 3 under the guidance of rational allocation and utilization of labor force,appropriate control of emigration rate,reduction of the proportion of aging population,rapid increase of penetration rate of machinery and recovery rate.If the historical development trend is continued,the migration rate and proportion of aging population will increase year by year,and the contradiction between the labor demand of industrial development and labor outflow will intensify year by year.Finally,the overall coupling and coordination level of the village will decline rapidly after 2026,and the system will degenerate from the moderate coordination antagonism stage to the low coordination and low coupling stage.To promote comprehensive and coordinated development of the villages,it is necessary to formulate reasonable industrial development plans,accelerate the pace of mechanized processing and production,shorten the expansion period of industrial scale,and promote the upgrading of industrial chain extension.Accelerate the implementation of abandoned homestead vacate,provide secondary development space for the village;Encourage local transformation of labor force,and provide labor guarantee for comprehensive and coordinated transformation of villages.The system dynamics model is helpful to analyze the mechanism,current problems and sensitive factors of the overall transformation of the village.By setting control variables,the overall evolution of the system can be simulated and predicted,and an optimization plan can be put forward.It provides a method for the systematic study of the village transformation and a decision-making tool for promoting the overall coordinated transformation of the village.