Empirical Study Of The Influence Of Agricultural Inputs To Agricultural Outputs

Agriculture is the foundation of national economy which ensures the social stability national prosperity, this importance determines that the government must support and protect it. Financial expenditure on agriculture is increasingly gaining attention by the government and scholars as a core measure of governmental administration and agricultural protection. Studying the financial expenditure on agriculture and agricultural factor inputs is of great importance to reasonably use our limited agricultural resources, promote the healthy development of agriculture and agricultural protection.The relationships agricultural output has with financial support for agriculture and agricultural element input are analyzed through VAR and multiple regression models in this paper based on the related time series data from 1985 to 2008.VAR model shows that the one lag agricultural output per capita has a significant positive impact on financial expenditure on agriculture per capita, while the elasticity of one lag financial expenditure per capita holds on agricultural output fails the test, so there is no significant impact. Co-integration test proves that co-integration relationship exists between these two series. Besides, impulse response function test results show that the financial expenditure has an unobvious, positive shock effect on agricultural output. Granger test shows that financial expenditure per capita can't serve as the Granger cause for agricultural output per capita, not vice versa. This conclusion questions the using validity of the financial capita on agriculture.Chemical fertilizer and hydropower generation capacity are eventually selected into the model by a stepwise regression, showing significant influence on agricultural output. Besides, by constructing regressions between other variables and agricultural output, effective irrigation area, rural electricity consumption and total power of farm machinery exhibit its importance, with an elasticity coefficient closer to 1 .In general, in order to ensure steady growth of agriculture, apart from increasing the intensity of financial expenditure, we should improve the using efficiency of government fund for agriculture, increase the investment of modern agriculture elements, and earnestly implement the agriculture science and technology policy.