A Study On Real Estate Investment Risk Decision

Real estates are foundational industry of the country economy. After the world financial crisis occurred, our country economy comes into a crisis's recovery stage. We become to make the adjustment to real estate market, which has had foam of the real estate industry. The adjustment will cause real estate enterprise to finish the sudden and huge profits, and the risk of property investment will increase greatly. For investment in real estates existence blindness, it has caused housing vacancy rate to stay at a high level at present, and has brought the serious influence to the economy. Therefore, in the investment process of real estates, we must pay great attention tothe risk measure and the science decision-making.Factors involved in real estate investment are highly dispersed and uncertain, so that decision-making in real estate investment is typically risky. The analysis risk was important link of investment decision. In this paper, we analyze risk factors of investment process in real estates, and give the main method when choice risk factor. On the research of the risk decision methods, we compare the strongpoint and defects of all the methods. In view of the shortage of reflection reality difficulty in the method of expectation profit and loss that has been wildly used, we set up a real estate investment risk decision model on the basis of Bayes theory. In the end, we have pointed out the practical value of the model and further studies direction, and analyze by the numbers and conclude the real situation of project selection during item risk decision-making in YiYang, HuNan Province. We have made the risk decision with risk decision-making model of real estate investment, and have chosen the most satisfactory plan, have reduced the decision risk. We Propos that consummates unceasingly along with the market, the computer, information technology's application, and the new decision theory's application, definitely will cause Bayes decision theory in the real estate investment more consummation.