Research Of Commercial Real Estate Investment Risk Decision Based On Bayes Theory

With the development of our country's residential real estate, the profit that developers can acquire becomes less and less. Therefore, the commercial real estate is becoming a new investment hot point due to its infancy and high profit. However, the exploitation of commercial real estate has high risk in our country because of the complexity of operation and the blindness of investment. In our some cities, the commercial real estate has brought a biggish economic loss to the government, developers, investors and operators due to the building blindly. Consequently, it is necessary for the developers to assess the risk of project and make a scientific decision.After analyzing the characteristic and present station of our commercial real estate, from the point of view of a developer, the thesis has analyzed the risk factors about our commercial real estate and their characteristics have also been identified and summarized.Factors involved in commercial real estate investment are highly dispersed and uncertain, so that decision-making in commercial real estate investment is typically risky. On the research of the risk decision methods, we compare the strongpoint and defects of all the methods and find the cut-in point of the paper: contrapose to the shortage of reflection reality difficultly in the method of expectation profit and loss that has been wildly used, we set up a commercial real estate investment risk decision model on the basis of Bayes theory.The analysis on demonstration prove that the model of commercial real estate Bayes risk decision-making presented by this paper can increase the information with market research and revise probability so as to increase the possibility for decision maker to make a good decision and reduce the decision risk. In addition, by reviewing the indexes of information value this model is also feasibility and necessary on the view of economy.