Study On The Factors Which Affecting The Accuracy Of China's Securities Analysts Earnings Forecasts

The purpose of this paper is to enhance the understanding of Chinese securities analysts, help the investors to study and use the research report of securities analysts. All of these are based on the studying earning forecast of Chinese securities analysts. The qualitative investigation and quantitative investigation, normative analysis and empirical study will be used as researching method. Figure out the root cause of the deviation of earning forecast and get a solution. That will be helpful for the promotion of the team of securities analysts, also for health growth of Chinese stock market.First of all, briefly review all the literatures which focus on the studying the content and forecast of accounting surplus domestic and overseas, based on the review presented an opportunity for this study.Secondly, clarified the definition and the types of securities analyst, presented the characteristics of the securities analyst earnings forecast, and generalizes the development status of Chinese capital market and securities analysts and the status of securities analyst earnings reports database.Thirdly, study the reasons of the deviation of earning forecast. Based on the research hypotheses, did empirical analysis for the factors which impact the accuracy of earning forecast by linear regression model. the influence factors of earnings prediction accuracy is an. The result indicates that the earnings forecast of Chinese securities analyst has obviously optimistic deviation, and the optimistic deviation of the forecast of losing firms is significantly greater than the forecast of profitable firm. If use median and mean value as consistent forecast an as a consistent, it will impact the judgment of the forecast deviation securities analysts and affect the estimate of the accuracy of the securities analysts predict. The deviation of consistent forecast by using the median is smaller than using the mean. Standard deviation of the forecast and the loss and profit status the firms have significant positive correlation with the accuracy of the forecast. The slewing rate of price index of stocks and the stock markets factor have a significant negative correlation with the accuracy of the forecast.Finally, put forward to the actions to improve the quality of earning forecast of the securities analysts. As using the conclusion of an empirical analysis, indicated the factors which impact the accuracy of securities analysts earning forecast at present stage, and listed the corresponding actions and suggestions.