| Forecast information of Securities Analysts as the main source of forecast information in the market is an important signal to guide investment behavior.It has been widely concerned by scholars at home and abroad.Forecast information of Securities Analysts has become an important research object in stock market because of its important role in capital markets.Previous literature of Securities Analysts forecast information only selected EPS as object,While this paper chooses another key indicator -PE.Whether China's securities analysts can provide reliable PE forecast information? What factors influence the accuracy of Securities Analysts'forecast?These are the problems we want to solve.In this paper,we defined Securities Analysts and accuracy of their forecast,based on the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed company's PE forecast over the period of 2002-2008,we examined the accuracy of PE forecast information from company features and Securities Analysts features.Finally through multivariate analysis,this article explores the influence factors of accuracy.As shown by the study,the overall accuracy of China's Securities Analyst PE forecasts can be accepted overally.However,it's conservative that the predicted values are generally lower than the actual value.Number of analysts,company's rate of expansion and the predictability of earnings are significant positive correlated with analysts forecasting accuracy;number of days,historical volatility of PE,volatility of analysts predict are significant negative correlated with analysts'forecasting accuracy; while the size of the company,asset-liability ratio,type of audit opinion are not significant correlated with forecasting accuracy.Therefore,in order to enhance the overall professional standards of Securities Analysts,the relevant authorties should make sound regulatory mechanism,while analysts should constantly improve their professional levels.Finally investors should treat Securities Analysts forecasts information dialectically. |
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