Financial Crisis Prediction Model Study In View Of DEA-DA Model

Enterprise financial crisis prediction is an important study direction in the area of not only enterprise financial management, but also investment management. For the good or bad of a enterprise financial condition relates the interests of investors or creditors, more than just the working out and adjustment of the development and strategy of enterprise itself. Especially for the listed companies, if the deterioration of financial condition can be seen at early stage, the prediction could provide basis for the investors'decisions, and make the managers take measures in time to ease the crisis and improve the management. Therefore,with the development of China's capital market increasingly,enterprise financial crisis judgement and financial crisis prediction research especially has important theoretical significance and practical significance.Firstly,this paper overviews the definition and difference of the financial crisis by foreign and domestic scholars,analyzes the definition of different definitions,and determines the definition of financial crisis in this paper is that the enterprises have been special treatment(ST). Then summaries the financial crisis prediction models which can be categorized statistics models and the instead models with financial index,and analyzes the advantages and limitations of models. Based on these analysis, put forwards the model of extended DEA-DA,and builds the financial index of this model. At the last,calculates the sample data by this model,and the results shows the use condition of this model , effectiveness and prediction accuracy. Extended DEA - DA model can well solve the "overlapping" which existed in the discriminant analysis,and the sample data requirements is easier than linear discriminative methods. At the same time , it need not subjective to give weight, and can handle the weight is negative, it has higher application value.This paper does working as follows: 1)Builds the financial index of this DEA-DA model,mainly including operation ability, growth ability, profitability, solvency four aspects;2)Introduces the the DEA-DA for financial crisis prediction, and shows the validity of the model by calculating the sample data;3)Through the results , has conclusions that extended DEA -DA model achieves higher forecasting precision when index differences is significant between ST enterprises and health enterprises.