Research Of The Financial Crisis Prediction On Listed Companies In China

With the globalization of world economy, the increasing open international and domestic market has brought unlimited business opportunities and enormous financial risks to every enterprise. When the risk comes, the enterprise will meet with financial failure. The enterprises are facing risks, but they ignore them, and the enterprises don't take timely measures when they are in financial failure, the enterprise will be fallen into financial crisis. So it is necessary for tracking, monitoring the financial operation. At the same time, we can discover the crisis signal as early as possible and forecast possible crisis.At present, many listed companies in china meet the problem of Special Treatment, one of the main reasons is that they are fallen into financial crisis. If we can make timely and effective measures before the companies appear financial crisis, it is possible to avoid greater losses. Just because of this reason, the paper tries to set up a prediction model on the basis of using relevant data and reviewing classic papers.Based on summarizing the research results, choosing 76 non-ST companies and 14 ST companies in manufacturing industry of Shenzhen Stock Market as research samples, the author builds a financial index system. The author condenses financial indexes through factor analysis and constructs a prediction model by the way of logistic regression analysis method, then tests the validity of the model.Main conclusions as follow: (1) The author should consider the cash flow in prediction model. (2) The paper uses more comprehensive financial index system, which can reflect the financial position. (3) The prediction model does well in predicting financial crisis, so it can be as an effective forecasting tool.