Empirical Research On The Mortgage Prepayment In Northern Jiangsu

With the real estate market developing fast and housing prices soaring, mortgage loan business in our country also developed rapidly. Mortgage has so many advantages, such as high profits, long term and low risk, that become the focus of competition among the commercial bank. With the rapid development of the mortgage, the risk is correspondingly accumulating. Prepay have many negative effects on the commercial banks. It is thus clear that, strengthening the study on the prepayment risk of mortgage has become an urgent matter of this moment.This paper does a systematic research on prepayment, using theory analysis, statistics study. In the theories aspect, sort out the mortgage prepayment literatures, summarize the interrelated theory research, and analysis the present situation and shortage of the domestic research. Then, in the empirical aspect, this paper select 17 factors as variables on the basis of the previous literatures, which involved the character of the lender, the loan and the house, adopt the loan data from a commercial bank in SuQian, and do the empirical research on prepayment. At last, it sums up the policy recommendations for the small city commercial bank.This research has four major conclusions: First, it adopts the mortgage data from the commercial bank in SuQian, enriches the researches of prepayment risk about mortgage in our country. Second, it overcomes the defects of existent research by combining factoring analysis, discriminant analysis and logistics model and contrast the results of the discriminant analysis and logistics model. Third, in the process of empirical research, increase some new variables, add the factor of housing in the analysis model, and reach the conclusion that new house buyer always tendency to prepay. Fourth, this paper raises policy suggestion on the prepayment management of mortgage in small city commercial bank, based on the theoretical and empirical research.