Empirical Research On Influencing Factors And Predictive Model On Prepayment Of Personal House Mortgage Loan

Since 1998, with the reform of urban housing system deepening and developing, the real estate industry has become the pillar industry of China, and real estate finance, which is closely related to real estate, has also achieved a rapid development. The figure from Central Bank of China shows that the proportion of personal house mortgage loans in the medium and long-term consumption loans reaches over 95%. By the end of June of 2009, the balance of financial institute commercial real estate loan reaches 6.21 trillion, up by 18.8%. The growth rate of real estate loan balance is on the rise, except in the period from November, 2007 to January, 2009. The real estate finance, based mainly on housing development and personal house consumption loans, has become an important impetus for profits growth of commercial banks.However, with real estate prices rising continuously these years, frequent adjusting of interest rates, and personal house mortgage loans business ongoing, our commercial banks are facing a new risk, prepayment now. Our commercial banks have been deeply obsessed by bad debts for a long time and what they worry about is no repayment, not prepayment. After decades of exploring and experimenting on personal house mortgage loans, Chinese commercial banks have fairly complete risk management experiences of controlling delinquency rate of personal house mortgage loans. Therefore, the study on how to manage the prepayment risk of personal house mortgage loans effectively becomes the highest priority for commercial banks.With reference to the study methods of domestic and foreign scholars, this article expects to use threshold analysis and example analysis together based on the collected data of personal house mortgage loans of one Chinese commercial bank to find out the main factors influencing prepayment of personal house mortgage loans, and to build a model based on these factors to forecast borrowers'prepayment, and thus in this way to offer theory support and technical references for the effective prepayment risk management of commercial banks.The general framework of this paper is as follows:The first chapter is the introduction. In this chapter, we explain the background and purpose of this research. Then we make a summarizing about theory of personal housing mortgages loan repayment ahead both at home and abroad, including the influence factors and prediction model theory system. The second chapter is a summary about our housing mortgages loan market and an analysis about influence of repayment ahead. This chapter introduces the situation and business characteristics in commercial bank individual housing mortgage market of our country. In addition, we analyze the borrower's decision-making of prepayment.The third chapter is a description of variable statistics and a data preprocessing. This chapter introduces data source, make a statistical description of data, and to analyze the data deeply. We forecast the influence factors prepayment of individual housing mortgages loan in our country preliminarily.In the fourth chapter, we make an empirical analysis of the influence factors of prepayment of personal housing mortgages loan. Based on research of individual housing mortgage loan both home and aboard and situation of the commercial bank credit information, we select 18 variables in our research. We choose factor analysis and discriminatory analysis as the research methods of our thesis. We discover the main influencing factors affected prepayment of our personal housing mortgages loan.Chapter 5 is empirical analysis on the model of prepayment of personal housing mortgages loan. Based on the results of chapter 4, we set up discriminatory function and Logistic model to forecast the model of prepayment of personal housing mortgages loan in this chapter. Finally we make a comparison on discriminatory function and Logistic model.Chapter 6 is the conclusion and prospect. On the basis of summing up the paper, we expound the deficiencies and the direction of further research of this thesis in this chapter.