| The personal residential mortgage loans began in the earlier 80s of 20 century in China, at that time China Construction Bank operated testing personal residential mortgage loans in some cities. The initial mortgage loans provided for employees'house buying of Legend Group marked the beginning of commercial bank operating personal mortgage loans formally. People's Bank of China issued in 1996, which bring the personal residential mortgage loans to a new age. After this, the government issued more policy and measures to stimulate the house consume and the house credit loan continually. The personal residential mortgage loans of China developed rapidly since then.But the prepayment of the personal mortgage loans have became the most important factor for the Commercial Bank's personal mortgage loans with the fast development of economics. What will be the reason for the prepayment,what influence will prepayment bring to the commercial bank and how should the commercial bank do to deal with the prepayment are also to be solved.In this paper, theoretical analysis and empirical study on the method of combining the theoretical analysis of the borrower prepayments of factors on the basis of factor analysis and Logistic regression analysis, the help of statistical analysis software SPSS13.0 version of a Anshan branch of state-owned commercial banks from March 2004 to December 31 2007, mortgage data for the empirical research shows that the borrower's financial, marital status, educational level, occupation, age and the length of loans, loan Value than the size of interest rate changes are on the borrower's prepayments of the impact there is a conclusion of the study. Through the conclusion of the study's analysis, the foreign experience, and with China's actual situation on the basis of the relevant policy recommendations put forward for commercial banks to manage personal residential mortgage loan prepayments risk of reference. |
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