Order Allocation Model With Multiple-supplier Based On Forecasting Production Load Rate

Whether an industrial cluster could be successful or not is determined by the efficiency of overall operation,the mode of manufacturing resource allocation is important to improve the overall operation. There are two modes in manufacturing resource allocation,one of them is regional virtual enterprise,in which cross-enterprise resources are organized based on the predetermined productive tasks,and the other one is an order allocation strategy based on load rate,in which the orders are allocated base on the conditions of manufacturing resources,these two modes have the same purpose. The order allocation strategy basing on load rate takes the equilibrium among these loading rates of different suppliers as the optimization criterion,which makes these load factors of different suppliers toward equilibrium during the order due date after these orders are allocated. Under this academic thought,this dissertation attaches importance on the problem of production load rate forecasting, order allocation model oriented to the optimized utilization of suppliers, manufacturing resource is constructed based on load rate forecasting.The main work of this paper can be summarized as follows:(1) Through literature research and field survey on current existence status of industry clusters, pointed out that the horizontal cooperation that stems from"self-interestedness"purpose is inefficient to coordinate load rate equilibrium, and further clarified the ideas that the purchaser regulates the load among suppliers by allocating orders.(2) This paper have made a general overview of the present domestic and international research on production load, including internal load plan and control, load coordinate among enterprises and load forecasting methods. Meanwhile, by the comparison of order allocation based on load rate with regional virtual organization, profoundly analyze the same and different points from five respects of pursuing goal, basic thought, major factors, coordination mechanism and implementation situation. (3) For the problem of production load rate forecasting, a bidding mechanism is adopted to obtain production information from the supplier .A method to calculate production capacity and determined load is brought forth, and forecasting model approach to uncertain load based grey prediction theory and maximum information entropy theory is put forward, comprehensive considering the history information about doxi and link relative. Empirically, the model effectively solves problems(4) Relative entropy is introduced as inequilibrium measure function. The muti-objective optimization modal is set up based on the optimization crieteria of cost minimization and production load rate among supplier balancing. The simulation studies are implemented foe the above model, and the effectiveness of model are validated.