Research On The Problem Of Production Lead Time Bullwhip Effect

The phenomenon of production lead time bullwhip effect is similar to the bullwhip effect in supply chain. Correctly determining production lead time is of great significance to making and control production plan. However, production lead time bullwhip effect puts enterprises in an awful predicament, in which enterprises are faced with plan neuroticism, and causes anxiety about delivering goods to customers in time. Therefore, production lead time bullwhip effect is a problem on which enterprises must pay seriously attention and give proper treatment. Based on analyzing the research status quo of bullwhip effect and the environment of production lead time bullwhip effect in a deep going way, this thesis studies formation mechanism, influence factors, measurement techniques and controlling means of production lead time bullwhip effect in detail.For studying formation mechanism of production lead time bullwhip effect, this thesis considers all kinds of uncertain factors in actual production systems, and thus derives that the creating factor is"passing time syndrome". Furthermore, how to impact production lead time bullwhip effect is proposed in economics, behavioristics and the mode of manufacturing production angles. Based on above analysis, this thesis summarizes relations and differences between production lead time bullwhip effect and supply chain bullwhip effect. Thereby, theoretical principle about measurement and control is rightly presented. For studying measurement techniques of production lead time bullwhip effect, this thesis analyzes the strength of stochastic Petri nets (SPN) in modeling, combined with fuzzy theory, and then it develops methods and procedures of building SPN under uncertain conditions. Meanwhile, it establishes a useful measure formula to judge the degree of production lead time bullwhip effect, which is used in a production process case. For studying controlling means of production lead time bullwhip effect, this thesis borrows ideas of harmonious management theory, and brings about a controlling framework. Concerned on uncertain factors in production, a corresponding setting method about buffer in critical chain is carefully designed. To some extent, this method provides enterprises an effective technology and a guiding tool, by which to mitigate production lead time bullwhip effect.In order to systematically apply these theories and methods to manufacturing enterprises, this thesis finally chooses Zhenjiang Diesel Engine Factory as empirical research. Proposed measurement method is used in bent axle processing workshop, and thus production lead time bullwhip effect is proved. On the other hand, controlling tactics about production lead time bullwhip effect is suggested to the company based on the existing problems of lead time. This case demonstrates that measurement techniques and controlling means have practical significance.