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Bidding Strategy And Its Information Support System Researchs Of The Hydropower Plant

Posted on:2007-11-18Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:J K ZhaoFull Text:PDF
GTID:2189360182973590Subject:Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Power market reform is the world trend of the power industry in the recent year. Price is always considered the economic lever that controls the electricity trading. So exactly forecast the price is not only related to the benefit of the every Market corpus, but also is the base to the macro view adjusts and control for the government, to conform the stabilization of the power system and to keep the development of power industry. As the progress of the electric power market in our country quickly, Carry out power plant'strategy support system in the market environment not only relate to the power plant performance in the future but also an important problem to its existences. This text mainly carries on studying the work as follows:This text use the data of SiChuan power market of our country, based on the chaos characteristic of the price and load, and combine the function of draws up to match and stronger suffuse ability of ANN to establishment the forecast model. This model have a good forecast result on real time power market and day ahead market, as well its not necessary to establish a weekend forecast model alone, so its have the accurateness and the strong adaptability merit.This text analyzes the fault of tradition error analysis; introduce a new error analysis method-MAPE with median instead of true price, and its can be expand.Next, this text analyzes the mechanic of the price spike in price sequence and the price-load relation. Base on the fact that more relation of the price-load have on the higher load period, a mend of the model is made. The improved model has the ability of price spike forecast.Again this text analyzes the strategy of the dispatch on the power market environment. A strategy based on benefit and a method based on matrix GA is give. The benefit based dispatch method can increase income of the power plants. The matrix based GA can greatly accelerate the GA program.At the end, the text carries on the programming to the power station information system, building up to have the power station MIS system of quote the bid support system.
Keywords/Search Tags:power market, price forecast, chaos theory, MAPE, price spike, matrix coding
PDF Full Text Request
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