Study On Investment Decision Of PPP Project Based On Option Game Theory

At present,PPP(Private-Partnership-Public),as a new kind of project financing mode,has been widely used in the field of infrastructure and public utility.But because the PPP project has high investment,long operation period,capital gains rate is low,difficult to control risk prediction and other characteristics,in the investment decision-making,social capital is difficult to make scientific evaluation of the value of the PPP project,influence the correctness of the decision.Many investors underestimate the importance of project evaluation,take the first investment and then evaluation strategy,which is very unfavorable for the landing of the PPP project.The traditional evaluation method of project investment ignores the elasticity value in the investment management,which can not reflect the value of the uncertainty in the operation of the PPP project.In terms of social capital,need a kind of investment decision evaluation method which is based on the characteristics of PPP project to evaluate the value of the project.Real option is an effective tool for investment decision making under uncertainty,and it is also an effective supplement to the traditional evaluation methods.Because the level of return of PPP project is largely determined by the government's support for the project,in the process of value evaluation,introduced the theory of option game quantitatively calculate the benefit from the government guarantee.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of the options game in the PPP project investment decision,this paper studies the influence factors of the real options value of PPP,and the change of the option value under the government guarantee.The option value of relevant parameters of PPP practical operation of each stage under different circumstances,set up stage compound real option model is established for estimation of the PPP project option value.Get the value of the project through several iterations,and inverse push to get the real option value of PPP project results,discussed the government guarantee value formation in the competitive negotiation bargaining,combined with the game theory give the value function of government guarantee,constructing the optiongame model for PPP project.The option game model is applied to a sewage treatment plant project,the reasonable division of the stages according to the characteristics of the project,using the phased compound option method to get the option value of project,and use the traditional decision method(NPV)to compare,proves the method of option game on its PPP project development in the full value of opportunity consider,confirmed the option game model of the practical value.