The Application Of Partial Least Square Repression(PLS)-Maximum Entropy In Risk Analysis

Oil-gas exploration is a very complicated project,which contains excessive and miscellaneous risk factors running through oil-gas exploration from beginning to the end.Those risk factors are very important to the process and the decision-making of oil-gas exploration.Firstly,this thesis has summarized the research on international and domestic risk analysis and the latter is still been studied and perfected.The risk analysis method used these days have several deficiencies,such as,having more qualitative analysis than quantitative analysis and imprecise quantitative analysis.Secondly,this thesis has fully digged up all sort of risk factors in oil-gas exploration project and has set up a scientific index system of risk analysis in oil-gas exploration project that includes 5 respects and 33 indexes,on the base of limitation analysis of usual risk analysis methods and learn from those methods' strong points to offset weakness of methods using in this thesis.Lastly,this thesis has brought forward and has discussed theory and arithmetic of partial least square regression and theory and arithmetic of maximum entropy and has synthesized the merits of partial least square regression and theory of maximum entropy and has formed a partial least square regression - maximum entropy model.Programs have been made in Matlab to operate the model that has been used to carry through risk analysis and evaluation,using Szechwan Deyan Sinchang Gas Field as a example.This thesis has helpful research and probe on extracting risk factors and quantitative analysis methods.It has made research achievements as follows:a. It has set up a scientific index system of risk analysis in oil-gas exploration project,on the base of project management risk analysis research and practice in risk analysis of international or domestic oil-gas enterprises' project,having combined knowledge of all missionaries on oil-gas exploration project and fully digged up all sort of risk factors in oil-gas exploration project.b. It has adviced that partial least square regression - Maximum entropy model should be applied to oil-gas exploration project evaluation,on the base of limitation analysis of usual risk analysis methods.c. It has fulfilled risk analysis and evaluation of Szechwan Deyan Sinchang Gas...