Multi-scale Analysis And Forecast Of The Main Resource Use Change In China

Along with the high-speed development of national economy, the balance of supply and demand of resource becomes a serious problem in China. Based on the wavelet analysis, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and dynamic forecast method, the thesis analyses the multi-scale characteristics of arable land and energy fluctuation, and gives dynamic prediction equations according to current situation . The result of the study shows:(1) The cultivated area in china has 13 years, 19 years and 27 years characteristic time scales. The main mutation points are at the year of 1950, 1960, 1978, 1985, 1992 and 2000. It is observed that national policies, natural disasters and national economy are the main factors which cause cultivated area fluctuations. Hereinto, the influence of national policies is the most outstanding, natural factors mainly include disaster and land degeneration, and economy factors include population and GDP.(2)The author advances several dynamic equations on arable land change and presents several recommendations for protecting farmland correspondingly based on numerical simulation. The result of the study shows: we must adopt the most severe measures in our history from now on, for the aim of insuring quantity of cultivated land of 1.2 × 10~8hm~2. Guaranteeing arable area supplement of 40× 10~4 hm~2 per year by reclaiming and tiding, trying our best to reduce the construction occupation of farmland by half, reducing the occupation of reasonable ecological retreat by one third, reducing the occupation of agricultural structure adjustment by half, reducing the occupation of the hazard destroy by one fifth are the five keys to insure quantity of cultivated land of 1.2× 10~8hm~2.(3) The main period of energy consumption fluctuation is 12 year, coal is 48 year, oil is 12 year, natural gas is 48 year, water electricity is 12 year. The energy consumption fluctuation increases in index.(4) If the output of energy can increase by 10%, at the same time, the consumption can decrease by 5%, the supply and demand of energy can balance in the year of 2025. If the output of oil can increase by 10%, the consumption can decrease by 5%, the rate of importation reach at 9.96%, the supply and demand of oil can balance.Wavelet, EMD and dynamic forecast method are adopted to study the arable land and energy in this thesis. It is not only rich the method of the theory of resource, but also can give instruction of the persistence usage of resource.