Land Use Dynamic Change And Prediction Of Dechang County

Sichuan has a lot of mountains and hills, large population, the per capita arable land resources are extremely deficient, therefore the dynamic changes of land use has become an important research topic. In this paper, the southwest Valley region of Sichuan Province,Dechang County,as the research object, using the land use data, from the land use degree, quantity, spatial and temporal changes and regional differences to analyze other aspects of the dynamic changes of land use in the region between 2000-2010; Using the methods of mathematical statistics to explore the land use change caused by the social and economic driving factors, and the Malco J model to forecast the trend of land use change.The main research results are as follows:(1)The status of land using in Dechang county. Dechang county land use structure has a large proportion of forest land,70.36%. Grassland and cropland were 8.28% and 8.14%, these three types of land use the sum total area 86.78%. The land utilization rate is 98.33%, Dechang county is lack of reserve land resources to develop.(2) The dynamic change of land-use. Dechang County, the amount of cultivated land is slowly increased, woodland, garden plot, unused land and water area decreased continuously, urban residential and industrial land, traffic land increase, in line with the objective laws of economic development.From 2010 to 2020, woodland, water area and unused land will decrease greatly. Because of the forest land base, damping is small, but reduced amount is maximum, reducing the area of about 176.87 acres; The traffic land and the residential and industrial land will increase every year, most notably traffic land increased from 0.72% to 1.20%.The final structure of a new land use pattern will be formed under the premise of the integration of urban and rural economy in Dechang.(3) The change to degree of the land use. Based on the Dechang county land utilization, comprehensive index deviation of the land use and landscape analysis: with the continuous development of population growth、economy and city, the land use rate increased.(4) Influenced by the regional geology and geomorphology, hydrology and climate, vegetation and mineral resources, Dechang county land utilization diversification degree is high and the land use type is complete. Land-use is highly concentrated, and the intensity of it is increasing.(5) In the period from 2000 to 2010, the county land use change was affected by natural factors and human factors.By using the factor analysis to analyze influencing factors of social and economic aspects of land use in the region, find that the main driving factors were population growth, the process of industrialization and urbanization.