Research On The Forecast Of Energy Supplying And Demanding In China

Energy is the important material basis of economic development and social progress, and it is an important factor to affect the human environment. Energy plays a decisive role in many aspects of economic development and social progress, such as industrialization, agricultural modernization, urbanization, and so on. All that depend on scientifically forecast China's energy supply and demand and on the basis of scientific development to implement a long-term energy development strategy at a certain extent which are China can ensure sustainable energy supply and energy security or not, China's energy supply can meet the economic growth and social progress or not, run on a road with Chinese characteristics. In order to ensure realization of the goal of China's national economic development strategy and building a resource-saving environmentally friendly and socially harmonious situation, scientific and reasonable to predict demand and supply of energy and develop energy policy is of great significance.Energy system is a nonlinear complex systems, and social progress, economic development, technological progress and macroeconomic policies will directly affect the operation of energy systems. On the contrary, energy supply and demand structure also directly affects economic structure, social development and environmental change. With the development of economy, especially scientific and technological development, the various relationships of the national economy are becoming increasingly complex, and energy systems are increasing the scale, and there are more and more complex linkages. China's economic development is in the transition period, and China's energy resources and energy structure of the situation are quite different with other countries, therefore, the paper integrated uses economics, gray system, econometrics, energy economics and other subjects of the theory and analysis method, and tries to make comprehensive use of a variety of quantitative prediction method, and to forecast energy supply and demand scientifically. The paper is a necessary supplement to China's energy economy.The paper analyzes China's energy supply situation based on analyzing the status of China's energy resource endowment and production, and analyzes the status of China's energy demand based on the analysis of energy demand structure and demand characteristics, and does the balance analysis of energy supply and demand situation. A variety of fossil energy is primary energy of our country's economic and social life. The paper analyzes the influence factor such as energy endowment technological progress, production and construction. China's economy has sustained rapid growth, and the rapid economic development will inevitably bring on a substantial increase in energy demand. Economic growth is the most important factor to influence the total energy demand. The paper analyzes the factors that impact energy demand. The total energy resources in China are relatively rich. The fossil energy resources in China have been proved coal reserves is more than 90%, and coal resources ranks the world first, but per resources is only 79% level of the world average reserves. Coal is China's most reliable energy sources, and its position will be strategic for a long time to come. China's oil resources is poor, and widely but uneven distribution of oil resources, is mainly distributed in the basin and coastal shelf. China's natural gas resources are mainly distributed in the central, west, and sea area. Grey forecast is the application process of gray system model to analysis, modeling, solving, forecast. The essence of gray modeling is the application data generation means of weakening the system of randomness, and make disorder of the system in the original sequence showing a rule, and the establishment of relations between generated sequences and a model of the original sequence. Trend extrapolation is a common prediction methods which speculates the future status that based on the data of history and reality of things, seeking the law of the development of things change over time.The paper does qualitative research on energy supply and demand system, and respectively uses the gray forecast method, trend extrapolation and combined forecasting method to study the supply and demand of energy, coal supply and demand, aggregate supply and demand of oil, natural gas, electricity supply.The increasingly serious energy situations make all countries have to develop a national or regional energy policy according to their own economic and social situation, and energy reserves, energy demand and supply projections and other factors, which includes ensure oil supply security, improving energy efficiency, development promoting renewable energy and new energy, and expand energy supply, strengthen the energy supply infrastructure and so on. On the basis of studying other countries' energy development policies, China has developed energy development policy also which includes taking measures to save energy, efficient development of conventional energy, developing renewable energy and new energy, adjusting and optimizing energy structure, establishing oil reserve system, strengthening energy management and so on.