An Empirical Research On Financial Distress Prediction Based On Equity Structure

With the market economy system deep reforming and the fast development of the capital market of our country, the complexity and uncertainty in economic field becomes increasingly evident, and it comes to be widespread that financial distress occurs, so, the prediction model is necessary to set up for such financial distress.Different from the formal study methods, in this dissertation non-financial indexes are used in the forecasting system of financial distress. On the basis of previous study achievements, this dissertation uses the method of the empirical analysis to the financial distress prediction, lead the equity structure variables into the research, and use the theories analysis and empirical researches for the financial distress prediction and the thesis supply references to the perfection of the research of the financial distress prediction in our country.Firstly, the dissertation made a study of Chinese listed companies (51 companies in financial distress and 51 companies in normal). Secondly, the dissertation selected 26 financial indexes and 26 equity structure variables. At last, confirmed 5 indexes to be the model variables, and divided 5 indexes into two groups. Made use of Fisher discriminanition analysis and the Logistic regression analysis, the dissertation set up prediction models of listed companies financial distress and contrasts the effects of the way using non-financial index with the way without using non-financial index.The dissertation comes into conclusion in the end: firstly, the model in which non-financial indexes are introduced is better than the model in which only the financial indexes are used. It means that it is feasible to use the non-financial indexes to set up the prediction model. Secondly, the effects of the model in which equity structure variables are introduced have enhanced.