Research On Forecast Of Cargo Volume Of Grand Canal In The North Of Jiangsu

Forecast of Cargo Volume, which is an indispensable part in its strategy research, is significant to the charting of a future direction, the scale of the shipping building and the establishing of the management policy. After analyzing the situation and influences of river shipping in Grand Canal in the North of Jiangsu, the paper forecasts the whole cargo volume, with qualitative and quantitative analysis methods. The final result is the theory basis of shipping strategy research on Grand Canal in the North of Jiangsu.There are six sections in this paper. In the preface, the author mainly introduces the backgrounds, aim, significance, main content and methods used in the research, and literatures related. After describing the natural condition and the shipping establishment of Grand Canal in the North of Jiangsu, in the second part the paper analyses the development situation, including the trend of the shipping such as the direction of cargo flow, cargo structure, and watercraft, the problems, the importance of its. Then the factors which have effects on Grand Canal in the North of Jiangsu are analyzed in the third part, such as the macro-change in our country, the economy of its hinterland ,the traffic system etc. The analysis offers the impersonal background for forecasting the cargo volume of Grand Canal in the North of Jiangsu. In the fourth part the author mainly studies quantitative methods. In the fifth part, firstly the cargo volume of Grand Canal in the North of Jiangsu is forecast with the quantitative models, including linear regression analysis, exponential smoothing, grey model revised, and tow combined forecast models. Then to take into account of the trend of related factors, the final result is gained through revising the forecast result above. Finally the author draws a conclusion and shows an expectation about the river shipping development of Grand Canal in the North of Jiangsu and the further research.