The Statistical Analysis And Policy Research Of Energy Demand In Beijing

The energy is the important material base of economy development and society progress. It is an important factor that affects the human survival environment. At present, our country has marched into the stage of heavy industry and high-energy consumption. The energy demand increases suddenly and there is nationwide energy scarcity in our country. The year 2004 witnesses the limitation of power consumption in 26 provinces. The energy shortage has become the giant bottleneck in the process of social development. As the capital in our country, Beijing keeps ahead in social and economic development and its energy problem attracts most attention. In recent years, there were steady increase of energy consumption and unceasing optimization of energy structure in Beijing. But the overall level of energy consumption was still high, and the energy structure need to be further improved. At the same time, the local energy resources in Beijing are limited and foreign dependence of the energy is high. How to unify the capital function localization and the energy demand condition, to promote coordinated development of energy and the capital economy, society, environment, which are important developmental strategy questions that we face. With the fast development of Beijing economy, the energy demand in Beijing has taken place a series of changes; the research about change rule and factor of energy demand will provide the foundation for empirical analysis and scientific basis to draw up the reasonable energy developmental strategy, optimize energy structure and advance the sustainable development in Beijing.This paper adopts statistic analysis and modeling method, and does an empirical research on Beijing. Based on the comprehensive analysis about the current situation of energy supply and demand in Beijing, this paper uses two indexes: elasticity of energy consumption and energy intensity to analyze the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption, and set forth how the industrial structure influences energy consumption and structure. In the end, it predicts the energy need in order to take proper measures to ensure energy security.In the first place, further systematic analysis is carried on in terms of total quantity, structure and comparison when analyzing the present situation of energy supply and demand in Beijing. Some basic characteristics of energy consumption in Beijing are obtained.Secondly, the impact on the energy demand deriving from economic growth and industrial structure is conducted, which lays the foundation for the behind policy analysis. Structure decomposition on the energy intensity is contained in the research. Empirical analysis of the influence from Beijing industrial structure on the energy intensity is carried on. The enhancement of energy use efficiency in various industrial plays an important role during the energy intensity change process.Thirdly, A prediction of energy consumption in Beijing during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period by means of Trend Extrapolation and ARMA model is concluded, which is combined with the reality in Beijing, in terms of systematic complexity and non-linearity characteristic of energy demand system.Finally, some practical suggestion on the energy policy in Beijing are given: adjust the economic structure, promote the structure energy conservation; develop and introduce the new technique on energy conservation, further raises the energy utilization efficiency; Reinforce government macro-control measure, build the fine energy conservation environment.