Estimates Of China's Energy Demand Forecast-cum-saving Room

Energy is the most basic driving force to the development of the world and economic growth, the basic substance for the survival of mankind. In today's world, The Development of Energy, Energy and Environment are the issues with the common concern of all mankind all over the world, also the important issues for the development of Socio-economic development of China. After the 90's of 20^th century, Energy consumption is sharply increasing in china with the Sustained and rapid economic development, so the energy gap is rapidly expanding, and the problem of energy security is gradually highlighting. Guiding by the scientific concept of development, accelerating the development of modern energy industry, insisting on giving priority to energy saving strategies are the basic national policy of china.To achieve sustainable development of energy, on the one hand, we should open source including the development of nuclear power, wind power and other renewable energy, one the other hand, we should reduce expenditure including adjusting the Industrial Structure and Energy Structure, vigorously implement energy-saving and emission reduction. Because of limited natural resources and the long-term from the development to applying of science and technology, opening source is a protracted and arduous job. At this moment, the first work we should do to achieve sustainable development of energy is how to do a good job in reducing expenditure and how to implement energy-saving and emission reduction vigorously.For these reasons, using a combination of qualitative and quantitative analytical methods, this thesis fixed a model based on co-integration analysis and a model based on scenario analysis to predict the energy demands in future in china, and then measure the space of energy-saving by them. In the process of energy demand forecasting, we took full consideration into the impact of the world financial crisis in 2008, which made the thesis followed by time, and full of Objectivity and practical significance.