The Electric Power Demand Forecast Of China And The Research On The Relationship Between The Electric Power Demand And The Economic Growth

Electric power is the basic power of the development of national economy, playsa crucial role in the whole energy system, and the national economy in all walks oflifeare closely related, the support is a key to the development of the nationaleconomy.The healthy development of the electric power industry can providepowerful energy support for economic development, promote economic development;on the contrary,the sustained economic development can promote the development ofelectric powerindustry. Power shortages have restricted badly to the sustained andhealthy economic development. Because the power is different from other energysources,cannot be stored and there isno inventory, capable of running status of socialeconomy, reaction more realistic and thus, on the economic development of theelectricity supply and electricity demand often become the barometer of the social andeconomic development.In this thesis, Discrete Difference Equation Prediction Model, carries on theforecast to the Shandong2020electricity demand. According to the prediction resultsof discrete two order differential equations, power demand in Shandong Province in2020reached590664000000kwh, compared to2012rose55.66%, increase may seemsmall, butdue to the base education reform of electricity demand growth, the absolutenumberof the value is2112.06, the power consumption is equivalent to the provinceof Shandong in2006. Therefore, Shandong electric power demand pressures in thenext few years.Then use vector autoregressive model, analyzes the relation between theShandong power demand and economic development, by the analysis of impulseresponse function shows, the economic development of Shandong province with theelectricity growth, after a certain period of rapid growth, the marginal effect of scaleeffect, reason, increase in electricity demand, economic growth has slowed. Thenormal electric energy of Shandong’s economic support, and faster economicdevelopment, the need for power energy support greater efforts. But in the economicdevelopment to a certain extent, with the increasing development and energyutilization efficiency of the new energy, economic development will be smaller for electric dependence onenergy, high-speed development in the third industry lowenergy consumption industry, so there will be the development of Shandong economyand power demand negatively related phenomena.Finally, the application of VAR model to discrete the two order differenceregularity were tested by the method of data integration, VAR model constructed fromsequence, each index data stationary time series data, two groups of data integrationof Cointegration and VAR model, discrete two order difference method to predict thedata in the regularity with high precision. By the analysis of the numerical errors ofdiscrete two order difference method, discrete two order difference data error methodto predict the rate is relatively low, reflecting a high degree of precision. Therefore,the Shandong electricity demand data of Discrete Difference Equation PredictionModel to predict with high credibility, to provide data support and reference on thefuture development of Shandong electric power industry.