| On the narrow sense ring of the Bohai Sea economy zone includes Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, East Liaoning Peninsula, Shan Dong Peninsula, and Stretching radiation arrives at Shanxi and the middle east part of Mongolia at the same time, Entire range occupies our country territory area 12% and the population 20%. Along the 5800 kilometers of coastline, there are more than 20 large and medium-sized cities, thousands of medium-sized enterprises echoing over a distance, and more than 60 harbors big or small as numerous as stars. Ring the Bohai Sea economy zone is also one of the most concentrated city groups, industry groups and harbor groups in China even in the world. Succeeding the Delta of the Pearl River, the delta of Yangtze River rising rapidly, ring the Bohai Sea economy zone is most probably becoming the third increasing pole of our country's economy. A lot of China and foreign experts and scholars also think that ring the Bohai Sea economy zone, especially the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, is hopefully becoming highly-influencing economy area in Chinese economy plate even in Northeast Asia in 2010 or so. Ring of the Bohai Sea economy zone has enormous potentials. The effect of Olympic Games economy will make strong attraction with essential productive factors over the world, which will accelerate to congregate in this area.The CPC report of the 16th National Congress points out: "based on the optimized structure and better economic returns, GDP arrives at 2020 making every effort to quadruple ratio of GDP at 2000, the comprehensive national strength and international competitiveness strengthen obviously." In other words, our country GDP needs to break 4 trillion dollars at 2020. The foreign trade is one of the three engines pulling GDP, export trade contributes at present to GDP increasing for 2%-2.5%, import trade contributes to GDP increasing for 3%-5%. For keeping domestic economy developing balance, and continuing to bring into actively moving effect, our country foreign trade must keep 7.2%'s annual average increasing speed. But in fact there are still a lot of difficulties to accomplish this target. But ring the Bohai Sea economy zone surely will drive the engine effect, and have already aroused home and abroad to pay close attention as the latent our country economy third increasing pole following the Delta of the Pearl River, the Yangtze River delta. Ring the Bohai Sea economy zone which has high extroversion degree is consistently a bigger foreign trade area, whose total import is 312.93 billion dollars in 2005, account for the whole nation total import 1588.6 billion dollars 19.7%, foreign trade depend degree of two cities and three provinces are all above 30%. Therefore the effect of the variation of exchange rate to ring the Bohai Sea economy zone comparing with central and western regions is especially more obvious. Our country has already formally be one of the WTO members, economy opening to the outside world degree improves to going a step further , total foreign trade volume increase rapidly, the exchange rates for the RMB is drawn more and more attention. Especially recent years, RMB is confronted with gigantic appreciation pressure. From July 21 ,2005, the Central bank announces RMB appreciates 2% to at March , 2006, already appreciating exceed 3 % in accumulative total. From the history of the world economy developing aspect, RMB still has the further appreciating trend, under this circumstances, the effect of the variation of exchange rates of the RMB to trade is to be regarded highly by every aspect. So it is necessary to study and analyze the influence brought by the variation of exchange rate and to make scientific prediction. It will be propitious to both macroeconomic policy-making and microeconomic enterprises' decision-making.Firstly, this paper briefly reviews some related theories and documents, and on the basis of this, combining the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methods, putting the stress on the influences brought by the variation of RMB reel effective exchange to the trade flow of the Bohai Sea economy zone. The quantitative analysis methods include ADF unit root test, Johansen co-integration test based on vector auto-regression model The results of the analysis reveal that the variation of RMB reel effective exchange only has a weak influence on the foreign trade of the Bohai Sea economy zone. The exchange elasticity of Trade Balance is only 0.298%, and the statistic test results are not significant. The exchange elasticity of the income of the Bohai Sea economy zone and the income of foreign countries is respectively 1.08 % and 5.48%. It is the increasing income of both the Bohai Sea economy zone and foreign countries that causes the trade of the Bohai Sea economy zone to increase rapidly.Finally, the paper analyzes the causes of conclusion drawn from the econometric analysis, and then, with the results of qualitative and quantitative analysis, advances some countermeasures and suggestion to cooperate with the appreciation of RMB. The paper holds the opinion that the change of trade flow is not sensitive to the variation of exchange rate, possibly because of the country's trade policies, the running policies of MNC, structure optimization of the import and export products, the specialty of the runners in import and export trade, or the demand to gear to the economic development. However, since the variation of exchange rate has different influences on different types of trade, we still need to take some measures to cooperate with the appreciation of RMB, such as actively keeping away the risk brought by the innovation of RMB exchange rate, pressing on with the strategy of "Promoting Trade with Science and Technology" and the strategy of enlarging overseas market. |
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