| This article is based on theoretical analysis, empirical analysis as a means of exchange in the review of theory and on the basis of past experience, first introduced the theory of equilibrium exchange rate changes, including the maturity of the equilibrium exchange rate theory:the basic elements of the developed countries based on equilibrium exchange rate analysis, the natural equilibrium exchange rate method, the behavior law and equilibrium exchange rate equilibrium exchange rate based on the Edwards analysis of developing countries, through the Elbadawi analysis of developing countries,equilibrium exchange rate analysis to compare them one by one. China as the specific research question, we need to combine the above advantages and disadvantages of each model, carefully select models. And then introduces the flexibility of the balance of payments analysis, using the exchange rate elasticity of trade balance, J-Curve analysis to illustrate the limitations of elasticity analysis; Currency devaluation can improve the trade balance. In the long run it depends on the international trade, export and import elasticity of demand, when a country’s import and export elasticity of demand to meet the Marshall-Lerner Condition> 1, the devaluation can improve the international balance of payments; At the same time it introduced another balance of payments absorption analysis, and analysis of the absorption effect on the trade balance and its limitations.From the point of macro view, an empirical analysis using panel data model based on China’s telecommunications equipment industry, the trade balance and exchange rate fluctuations between the model results show that:in the long term China has been calculated with -0.2366-0.1570=-0.3936<1, therefore, which it does not meet the long regression analysis, the Marshall-Lerner Condition. In other words, the exchange rate appreciation, In the short term, to improve the communication equipment manufacturing industry in China trade balance, trade facilitation and upgrade the industrial structure and product innovation, while driving our trade balance surplus, improve the RMB’s position in international trade and the right to talk, but the exchange rate of economic development in the long term is still negative.From the point of micro view, detailed analysis through charts and models of regression analysis, using data on least squares OLS regression model can be found:the assumption that other variables remain unchanged, then the appreciation of real effective exchange rate 0.1000 then Huawei’s exports will increase 1.6 billion, ZTE’s exports will increase 1.0 billion, while exports of Shanghai Bell will be increased by 0.024 billion dollars. The communications equipment industry is not only a high-tech industries, but also from the thirty years into the fastest growing industries, and the exports mainly depend on the assembly of imported components for export or its add-value, and the labor costs in China compared with overseas, it still keeps advantages, Others can be observed from each chart: Shanghai Bell’s export trade growth and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate into a negative correlation between the direction, in the above three representative companies in the chart, namely:Huawei, ZTE, Alcatel Shanghai Bell, were negatively correlated with changes of the most obvious is Huawei, while ZTE and Shanghai Bell is less than Huawei. Regression result is found by real effective exchange rate changes on the emports of telecommunications equipment manufacturing industry elasticity of trade balance are very small, so the elasticity of demand for their exports respectively are:-0.0016,-0.0010,-0.000024 which are far less than 1, it can be drawn that the real effective exchange rate movements in the short term will improve the emport of communications equipment manufacturing trade balance. But the exchange rate of economic development in the long run will be still negative, which is consistent with the view of the empirical analysis. |
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