| The economic system is composed of many micro-individual components; Micro-rational individual behavior is limited. And so they play an important difference between the state and behavior; Micro among individuals, Micro extensive interaction between the individual and the environment; Adapting to the environment. Micro individual can learn through practice and adjustment; microscopic state of the individual to change their behavior; Individual state of microeconomic and macroeconomic aggregates to the cumulative come naturally. Thus, the macroeconomic dynamics is the result of the interaction [micro individual. Study of a phenomenon must not be divorced from its macro-economic foundation, which is the basic point of our depth.In this paper, We have to study the dynamic characteristics of the development of the financial markets is unmatched in groups under the act and meet forecast . The target analysis led to many difficulties on the way. First, the financial markets is a complex and adaptive economy credit market. Its complexity means : (1) The system is constituted by a series of interaction between the main network; (2) These naturally formed the main activities of the dynamic accumulation; (3) the description of the cumulative acts with the main details of individual knowledge. Adaptability means : (1) the environment of the main activities can be given a value; (2) With the passage of time. the main trend in the increase in value. The market credit means : (1) the main target for the state's comprehensive evaluation; (2) to the individual based on the evaluation of the overall behavior trends and results; (3) discrete heterogeneous distribution The typical individual and group decision-making theory was dominant papers invalid.This adaptation is based on the complexity and heterogeneity of the market and individual self-micro-evolution, and the micro-credit itself is the main business -- individual or individuals. This makes the heterogeneity of the study can not be divorced from the individual violations phylogenetic analysis. Moreover, the individual objectives of the operating system in the area during the transition, the role of micro-enterprise system and individual changes. thus the microscopic behavior of individual decision-making, and the results of individual microscopic cumulative effect of the shape of individual goals. Target inevitable result is a typical complex adaptive systems. Meanwhile, the main system changes in the economic conditions of the lack of knowledge of the history of decision-making needs of inertia. The study also substantially reduced their support methodology.Traditional financial market effects of the overall macro-level analysis focused mainly on the experience of the use of mathematical methods for monetary policy made a short-term or long-term comparative static analysis. They include : (1) The traditional theory analysis, the Keynesian model of the most representative IS-LM model of the slope of the adoption curve, but there is evidence that the conclusions may not always hold up. Even using certain parameters to improve the method, still lacks a realistic basis; (2) mathematical statistics, If econometric methods, it is also an experience analysis, it can not guarantee that it is a strong theoretical support, The restructuring resulted in the measurement system while data not available; and (3) other analytical method Measurement of full dealing with the combination of general equilibrium theory and game theory under the optimal method of introduction, Although they are largely made breakthroughs, but still has not been able to shake off the shackles of traditional concepts and the lack of data. The main shortcoming of the traditional method : First, the operation of financial markets is an extremely complex system. Or both mathematical methods are bound to establish a quantitative model to simplify a lot of issues, or total analysis or typical individual analysis, it will inevitably lead to some kind of deviated from economic reality; Secondly, overlook or ignore the micro analysis of individual behavior differences among individuals, have led to a mutual separation of macroeconomic analysis and micro-economic analysis, makes the lack of a solid foundation of macroeconomic analysis; Furthermore, the traditional analysis is based on historical data analysis proved that, When the new economic policy or economic phenomenon, the results may be totally lost; Finally, The credit market is a dynamic analysis of the evolutionary process. Traditional methods of comparative static analysis or general equilibrium analysis. Phylogenetic analysis of the so-called conduction mechanism is basically a misnomer.In recent years, some Western economists, Money from the evolutionary point of view, the law is a viable way to the market, evolution is at the forefront of the market economy. The main changes in the rules of the game and continued economic reform similar to the lack of historical knowledge. make the transition economies is a typical complex adaptive system. effective tool for the study of complex adaptive systems is based on the main economic model.Based on the above understanding, we use a micro-simulation on the main approach to evolution and rational limited basis From micro-level modeling environment and the specific conditions of the specific individual model Based on the development of a micro-simulation model Modeling and analysis of the postal savings bank system for the transition process after the economic trends, Postal Savings Bank in order to make projections about the future development.The experimental results show that : (1) of the postal savings bank in the traditional commercial banks in urban financial markets especially fierce competition, The most significant savings in urban markets. relatively rural savings market in the traditional commercial banks invest a larger share of the circumstances under which they will lose. But the middle period on their respective market shares will not see too much change; and the rural financial market would become more competitive edge in the postal savings bank to maintain market share; (2) In urban credit markets, the postal savings bank soon after its establishment was not significant share of the market rural credit market will become rapidly gain market economy and promoting the development of major economic entities; (3) enterprise system transformation, the market competition in the development of the postal savings bank in the greater volatility But the overall trend is good; (4) the development of rural businesses, the postal savings bank to promote capital accumulation, and the Postal Savings Bank has provided support for the development of rural businesses, both a win-win and common prosperity. effective development of the postal savings bank to promote rural economic development.The economic environment, as the financial markets was seen as independent from the main component of the evolution of system interaction. Many of the simulation experiment gives us a new perspective. Experimental economic structure an objective and realistic simulation of a dynamic economy. Agent is the evolution of the economic environment in particular, the optimal decision path. In our simulation model makes predictions at the same time, the postal savings bank as the focus of future development path bias provide a useful guide for policy decisions, is very constructive policy. |
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