A Research On Technological Innovation Risk-decision Based On Real Options

The step of global economic integration is fastening and the period of technological innovation is shortening after mankind moved into 21 Century. Under the condition of competitive structure changed, the competitive focus is changing from product-based into technology of knowledge-based. Technological innovation is becoming an important part of core capability. On the view of total country innovation system, Technological innovation is an important part of country innovation system and way of improving economic growth. As we know that technological innovation is very meaningful, it not only affects industry structure and employment structure, but also decides country competence.And how to value technological investment is an important issue in the management of technological innovation. In the academic circle, it is admitted that the traditional discounted cash flow approach is not efficient to deal with the issue, and thus the financial option theory should be introduced to this field. However, the real investment field varies a lot, so it's not feasible to solve real option pricing problems with the financial option theory. In addition, the decision-making of technological innovation project belongs to the risk-decision, therefore this thesis focuses on research about technological innovation risk-decision based on real options approach.First, by detailed discuss on the research present situation of technological innovation, the real options and the risk-decision, the thesis analyzes the elementary theory of technological innovation, the real options and the risk-decision and under the specific time background makes new understand of correlative concepts, the definitions, the characteristics, and takes them as the theory foundation for the thorough research.Next, the thesis elaborates the characteristic of technological innovation and risk-decision and constructs the basic pattern technological innovation risk-decision; analyzes the real options characteristic of technological innovation, constructs the basic pattern of technological innovation risk-decision based on the real options. These two patterns form the basic decision-making frame of technological innovation project.Assisted by risk-decision approaches, this thesis takes the real options approaches as the core to establish the basic models, provides the most superior decision-making approach for the technological innovation project. The thesis chiefly analyzes technological innovation project choice decision-making model, time selection model and project stop model based on the real options approaches. In the study of project choice model, the thesis makes the revision of the pricing formula according to the different hypothesis. In addition, using the risk-decision approaches to make the essential revision to the real options approach of technological innovation project decision-making.Finally, the demonstration analysis is used to further verify the feasibility and practicality of the basic models and methods. In summary and forecast, the author comes to the conclusions and points out the future research direction.