Analysis And Design On The Chinese Oil Demand Forecast System

Oil demand forecast is an important component of oil development strategy. Scientific, reasonable and accurate analysis of Chinese oil demand is not only to protect our energy security, provide an effective means to solve the bottleneck of Oil, but also will have a major impact on Chinese economic health for achieving sustained, rapid development.Firstly, as the complex nature of the demand for Oil, and non-linear characteristics, use the historical data to Chinese Oil demand, qualitative analysis of the current situation of Chinese Oil demand, main factors and the problems in existence. Give the basic principles and steps of oil energy forecast. Analysis some of the existing methods of oil demand forecast, Time Series Analysis, Artificial Neural Network method, Gray System for example. Then focus on the principles and the overall design of the Oil -forecasting system design. In sum the analysis of historical data on the premise, using of statistical methods for analysis, and taking full advantage of computer technology, establish the corresponding statistical analysis model; Put the model proposed in the corresponding methods. Realize the Exponential Smoothing, Seasonal changes Forecast, Regression Forecast, Consumption Flexibility Forecast, oil consumption per unit output value Strength Measurement. Later, .NET language is used for demonstration systems which are about oil demand forecast. Forecast of Chinese oil consumption in 2006. Finally, give the attention of algorithm used in the practical application.The study of Chinese oil Demand Forecast System and prediction algorithm may provide a new reference to Chinese energy policy formulation. Accordingly, the energy policy formulation becomes more scientific and effective.