Correlation Between Performance Prediction Of Listed Companies And Analysts' Forecasts

The listed company's profit forecast and the forecast of the analysts are the important sources for the investors to obtain the future profit information of the company.The disclosure of information will directly affect the analysts to judge and forecast on enterprise profitability.However,the current performance forecast disclosure policy stipulates only when a company should disclose the information.There are no specific requirements on the specific characteristics of the disclosure form.Different disclosure forms imply different implied information,which will affect the analysts' judgment.This thesis reviews the performance forecast of listed companies and analysts in China,and makes use of the innovative research methods of experimental research and empirical research to study the influence of different characteristics of performance forecast of listed companies on the forecasting behavior of analysts deeply.Select the performance forecast form as the main research object,using experimental research method,predict the performance of analysts to predict the performance forecast after the simulation.To explore the impact of different forms of performance forecasts on individual analysts from two aspects: forecasting quality and impacting confidence.Based on the results of the experiment,I put forward the hypothesis and use the data of the listed companies from 2012 to 2016 as the sample to carry on the empirical analysis.Select the forecast result of the analyst as the research object,take the difference of the different performance forecast as the main factor,screen a reasonable amount of control variables,design the model,use SPSS software to carry out empirical regression analysis,establish the regression equation and draw the performance Predict the specific form of the analyst's prediction of the existence of the existence and impact of the relevant conclusions.Finally,the empirical results are compared with the experimental results to determine the relationship between the performance report format and the analyst forecast results.The conclusions of the two methods are integrated,the reasons are analyzed,and the conclusion is used to guide the release of the actual performance forecast,improve the form of the issuance,and make contributions to regulating the relevant systems of information disclosure in China.In this thesis,I study the specific characteristics of performance forecast and the forecast accuracy of analysts,expand the field of existing literature research,broaden the perspective of behavioral research on analysts' forecasting by combining innovative approaches with empirical and experimental methods,perfecting the performance advance notice system,providing theoretical reference and analysis ideas for the state regulatory agencies to gradually improve the supervision and policy formulation of performance forecast disclosure.