Assessment And Forecast Of The Risk Of Technical Barriers To Trade

TBT (Technical Barriers to Trade) is one of the challenges to the development of Chinese foreign trade after China has joined the WTO. To avoid the destructiveness of TBT to Chinese export enterprises, it is urgent to assess the risk of TBT effectively and set up a comprehensive TBT forecast system. Being the foundation of the TBT forecast system, this thesis tries to apply quantitative methods to carry out the assessment of the risk that TBT brings to Chinese enterprises.This thesis can be mainly divided into two parts. In the first part, Synthesis Evaluation Method is applied to calculate the risk of a TBT. The risk of a TBT depends on three factors, including the country which set up this TBT, the kind of export commodities this TBT concerned with, and how deeply this TBT can influence the commodities' function. These three factors' risk can be calculated respectively and finally constitute a synthesis risk, which can be used as a standard to judge the TBT's risk level.In the second part of the thesis, logit model is applied to forecast the probability of the occurrence of a TBT. Taking the mechanical and electrical products as an example, this thesis has collected the foreign trade data of Guangdong, China, and finally got a forecast model whose forecast correct percentage is up to 84.6%. The results turn out to be that whether a country will set up a TBT or not mainly depends on six factors, including its trade balance, trade balance to China, GDP per capita, the number of its anti-dumping case, the number of its countervailing duties case and the health expenditure per capita.Summing up the relative data and the method talking above, we can build a comprehensive TBT forecast system which can offer not only the probability of the occurrence of a TBT of coming year, but also the predicted cost we will suffer from this TBT. As a result of that, this forecast system can minimize cost which TBT brings to Chinese local export enterprises, and optimize Chinese export industry's development.