Study On The Early Warning Management Of Agricultural Exports Technical Barriers To Trade Risk

Our country is very powerful in the agricultural products export trade, and agricultural product is an important source of export. Along with the progress of science and technology level and the improvement of living standards, in developed countries and regions, they gradually pay much attention to the quality of life, advocate the values of green civilization, increase the demand of agricultural products without health hazard and increase the attention to the quality and safety of agricultural products day by day. In order to ensure the quality and safety of products and protect the interests of the domestic agricultural producers, some countries have set some strict technical standards and established an authentication systems and a lot of inspection and quarantine implementation programs, which have caused great influence on China's agricultural exports. Because technical barriers to trade has some characteristics such as universality, complexity, concealment and flexibility, which has become the biggest obstacle to China agricultural exports. Establishing the pre-warning system of technical barriers to trade for agricultural exports trade and effectively protecting agricultural exports from the influence of foreign technical barriers to trade, avoiding uttermostly technical barriers to trade risk, has a very important role to promote Chinese agricultural exports and economic development. Based on a large number of domestic and foreign literatures of the technical barriers to trade and the theories of risk early warning, taking the source discrimination of agricultural exports technical trade protectionism risk, the construction of early-warning risk indicator system, the establishment and application of early-warning model and control in advance to the risk as the master line, this paper further studys the risk early-warning system of technical barriers to trade, by methods of systematic analysis, comparative analysis and model analysis.The related theories of agricultural exports technical barriers to trade risk early-warning are the basis of this study. This section mainly introduces the concept of technical barriers to trade, the causes and its dualism, the meaning and characteristics of the risk of agricultural exports technical barriers to trade, agricultural exports technical barriers to trade risk early warning theory, which provides theoretical guidance for the following content.The source discrimination of agricultural exports technical barriers to trade risk is the starting point of the research. The paper analyzes the risk of technical barriers to trade (TBT)mainly from the two aspects.Through the analysis of the reasons causing the technical trade barriers, we know that there are many reasons for the risk, there are several key factors such as agricultural products low quality is, the export agricultural product structure and market structure is not rational, the quality testing and certification system of produce is backward, the influence of foreign trade protectionism is strong and the technical level of foreign countries is higher.The establishment of agricultural exports technical barriers to trade risk early-warning index system and early-warning model is the core of this study. Based on the source discrimination, this part mainly uses the methods of theoretical analysis, multiple factors such as analytic hierarchy process, follows the principle of scientificalness, operability, qualitative and quantitative analysis, and so on, constructs the agricultural exports technical barriers to trade risk early-warning signs index system. Based on hierarchical analysis method of fuzzy synthesized evaluation, this part constructs early-warning model, and uses the sino-japanese trade datas to verify. This research shows that the early-warning model is desirable.The precontrol of agricultural exports technical barriers to trade risk is the foothold of this study. For agricultural exports trade risk, this part puts forward four aspects of precontrol countermeasures and suggestions for the risk of technical barriers to trade, which are the supply chain management, the agricultural geographical indication, agricultural associations and government.