Study On Real Estate Cyclical Fluctuations Of Hangzhou

In recent years, Hangzhou has focused on creating "living in Hangzhou" brand, and obtain a "UN-Habitat Award" and "International Garden City" title. home home buyers become the preferred cities in the world, while the government has introduced a series of policies to promote the rapid development of real estate in Hangzhou. Currently, Hangzhou, real estate has become an important pillar of the national economy. Meanwhile, the urban housing conditions have been greatly improved. However, we must clearly see that the current real estate market of Hangzhou there are some problems that need urgent solution. If the obvious contradiction between supply and demand, soaring housing prices, the market and speculative transactions As reported increasing problems. Hangzhou has become overheated real estate market while the government, academics, consumers are increasingly concerned. Characteristics of the real estate and property market fluctuations in the real estate cycle changes with its own unique characteristics. Along with the constant development of the real estate market and economic relations have become closer and closer. excessive volatility of the real estate market will cause great damage to the national economy. Therefore it is necessary to conduct a study of Hangzhou real estate cycle fluctuations.First, we summarizes the current real estate cycle fluctuations and the problems that exist under domestic research and intouduce the purpose and significance of the papers. Then, starting to explain the interpretations of the real estate cycle fluctuations from the cycle the basic tenets of the economic cycle. summed up the general characteristics of the real estate cycle fluctuations, and discussed the causes of the real estate cycle. Then, in light of actual establishment of the cyclical fluctuations of the real estate appraisal standards and through SPSS division leading indicator synchronization, after lagging indicator. Calculation of diffusion index, a leading, synchronization, lagging indicator composite index. Also analyzed the investment, completion area, a sales area of the cyclical fluctuations of individual indicators, Hangzhou fluctuations in the real estate cycle to prove objectivity. Eviews respectively through leading software, synchronization, and real estate sales prices for short lag forecasts The results indicated Hangzhou real estate cycle, reaching the peak in 2007. Finally, the article mainly in the context of the real estate cycle fluctuations measured and forecast results, in terms of land, Residents and housing consumption, government regulation and other aspects of real estate market in Hangzhou sustained and healthy development of the proposal.