The Empirical Study Of Fluctuations In China's Real Estate Cycle

In recent years, China's real estate has been in constant fluctuations. The housing prices have been rising since the reform of housing system in 1998, though our country has introduced a series of macro-control, while the development of housing market still can not be inhabited. Until 2008, the economic crisis which spreads all over the world, coupled with the overheated investment led to excess supply of commercial housing market in 2007, the first major turning point in the market appeared. With the introduction of good policies during 2009, the market began to pick up. Then, after the 2011's "The eight regulations of new country, the administrative intervention policy has been basically come into effect with the core of "restricted purchase, " restricted credit", "restricted price", and the price of real estate began to decline. In 2012, the real estate market has experienced a great change from "cold" to "hot", both the real estate industry and the development of enterprises are triumph of 2013. In the policy tends to loose, stable economic recovery and other macro environment continues to improve the property market ushered in a climax of development. The new turning point occurred in 2014, with the macroeconomic falling, china's economy turned into the new normal, pre fabricated closely related real estate market has entered a period of adjustment. Under this background, the study of real estate cycle fluctuations has a real theoretical and practical significance, and the real estate market which is closely related to it, has entered a period of adjustment.First of all, this paper reviews and expounds the research results of the real estate cycle fluctuations and related theories of domestic and international. On this basis, the paper defines the concept of real estate cycle fluctuations newly. Then, we introduce the operating mechanism of the real estate cycle fluctuations, especially the external shocks-internal conduction mechanism. In the empirical part, through the comparison of several commonly used methods of real estate cycle, the main components of the system are analyzed, and the 13 indexes of the real estate cycle are selected to establish the index system, and the data are processed by SPSS 17.0 software. Finally, the time series of the real estate cycle fluctuations are obtained.The results of empirical analysis show that from 2014 to 2004. the real estate cycle in our country roughly experienced 3 complete cycles, we get the average length of the cycle for the 12 quarter. Judging by principal component analysis comprehensive effect, we found that China's real estate cycle fluctuations focus on the real estate enterprise development investment amount, clinch a deal the price, the completion area, sales area, land sales and the added value of real estate industry, etc. Our principal components analysis for the selected indicators results show that the principal component factors influencing the real estate cycle fluctuation mainly has three aspects, the first principal component mainly focused on the added value of real estate industry, real estate enterprise development investment to complete the clinch a deal the forehead, land price, land area and construction area, completed area of purchase, we define it as a supply factor; The second principal component is mainly focused on the sales area and sales, we are treating it as a demand factor; The third principal component mainly focused on loans for five years and the consumer price index, we define it as a policy. Thus it is concluded that at present our country real estate industry development is affected by the three main aspects:the supply and demand, the influence of the policy.The ultimate goal of this paper is to explore the causes of China's real estate cycle fluctuations through the empirical analysis, and to provide a theoretical basis for the implementation of macroeconomic policies, and also for the government to develop more targeted policies to ensure the healthy operation of the real estate industry conditions. However, because of the selection of the relevant statistical indicators and the limitations of the research methods, the study of the real estate cycle fluctuations needs further research.The innovation point of this paper is to establish the research system of six kinds of indicators, the selection of quarterly data, in the time series of multiple screening based on the analysis, combined with seasonal adjustment and trend decomposition, getting periodic law of fluctuation of real estate cycle that without interference.