Study On Predicting Of Commercial Housing Constructive Land Demand And Supply

Nowadays, the commercial housing market development is mainly limitied by contructive land resource. The demand of all kinds of contructive land is becoming more with acceleration of citylizing process. As a consequence, the following are main study points of this paper: fisrt of all, how to predict the demand of constructive land, especially the commercial housing contructive land; secondly, how to use land reasonally and improve land use efficiency; thirdly, how to make the supply volume and banking volume of commercial housing contructive land and make the land supply plan.At fist, the paper explains several conceptions about the demand and supply of commercial housing constructive land as well as the theories of the relationship between land demand and supply. Meantime, the paper also study on the commercial housing constructive land demand and supply mechanism and the influential factor system.The paper preliminarily chooses the influential factors according to certain principles from the reality of Xi'an commercial housing market; on the basis of the selection, then applies correlation analsis and gray correlation degree model to filter the important factors. According to the filtrated factors, the paper adopts multiple-factor regression and BP neural network to construct the predicting models, and through all kinds of revised methods to make the predicting models more scientifically and to make the predicting precision more higher. Regarding the correlation influential factors, the paper mainly utilizes grey systematic GM(1,1) and curve estimated model to carry on dynamic predicting of the factors changes. The paper combines the influential factors predicting results and the multiple-linear and the BP neural network predicting models in order to obtaining the predicting results of Xi'an commercial housing demand and supply volume from 2006 to 2010.On the foundation of predicting results of commercial housing demand and supply volume from 2006-2010, then according to the relationship among the commercial housing contructive land, average commodity rate of commercial housing and commercial housing volume, the paper constructs the commercial housing contructive land demand and supply predicting model. Meanwhile, with this predicting model, we can compute the predicting results of Xi'an commercial housing contructive land demand and supply volume from 2006-2010. On the other hand, on the basis of Xi'an commercial housing market situation analysis from 1998-2005, the paper also have a prediction of all kinds of commercial housing contructive land demand and supply volume, including normal residential constructive land, luxury residential constructive land, economical housing constructive land, business housing constructive land, office housing constructive land and other type housing constructive land.The paper also utilizes the predicting results of all kinds of commercial housing contructive land demand and supply volume from 2006-2010 as well as considers the status of Xi'an commercial housing market to make the constructive land supply plan and land banking plan from 2006 to 2010.At last, the paper makes a predicting affection comparison between multiple-linear model and BP neural network model. As the same time, the paper also points out some problems of the predicting process and makes some solution methods.