| Transport and communications industry which plays an very important role in the national economy,is the most important sub-industry of the Equipment Manufacturing industry and is also an important industry in the 11th "five-year plan" which mainly involves the Automotive industry, Railway transportation equipment manufacturing industry, the Ships and fluctuation installment manufacturing industry, and the Aviation spacecraft manufacturing industry.Transport and communications industry including 7 centerkind of industries: Railway transportation equipment manufacturing industry; Automotive industry; Motorcycle manufacturing industry; Bicycle manufacturing industry; Ships and fluctuation installment manufacturing industry;Aviation spacecraft manufacturing industry; Communication materials and other transportation equipment manufacturing industries. The level of Transport and communications industry's development reflects a country's ability in the scienceand and technology,technological design, material, processing and manufacture, and so on, specially the capacity of the significant transportation equipment manufacturing which the technical difficulties is big,the complete set is strong and needs the cross profession necessary manufacture, has reflected a national economy and the technical strength; Transport and communications industry whose industry connection is big, the scale benefits remarkablely,and the impetus is strong, is an important industry which affects the national economy and the national defense development,while transport and communications industry is the important strength which the national economy important prop and the impetus economy grows;Transport and communications industry which provides the modern transportation equipment for the entire society, is an important foundation of the state economy security and the military security.As an pillar industry, strategic industry and high-tech industry and transport and communications industry plays a critical role in our national economy.Its development has direct influence on our national economy and national defense security.Therefore,reasearch into the present development condition of our country's transport and communications industry, the differences between our country and the world powerful nation of the transport and communications industry and the law of long-term demand and long-term supply for transport and communications industry can help the government and related agencies to precisely judge the situation of transport and communications industry,predict the direction of development of transport and communications industry ,and make wise industry policies for transport and communications industry.In recent years,as the fast development of our country's economy ,our country's transport and communications industry has obtained the swift and violent development.The Chinese automobile output realizes to break through 7 million in 2006,and China surpassed Germany to become the world 3rd big automobile production country; In 2005,as the world places 3rd,the globalmarket scale of our country ships reaches 14%, According to the statistical data demonstration reported by the English market investigation organization Claxon Ships Sroker Company, the Chinese ship building enterprise obtained the new order form of 13.5 million CGT in junary 11st 2006,and the Chinese shipbuilding enterprise is situated the 2nd in the world for the first time;The realization of "two people five days" astronautics flight of Shenzhou VI, caused China to become the third independent development man-in-space flight country in the world.China has a huge output of transportation equipment,but this doesn't mean china has a powerful transport and communications industry.Compared with the nations with powerful transport and communications industry, Our products have less technique and lower additional value; the scale of enterprises is smaller;productivity,laboring efficiency and the increased rate for industry are all far lower than America', Japan', and Germany'etc..So,in order to ensure our transport and communications industry to win in the fierce international competition,we have to attach great importance to the reasearch about the law of long-term supply and demand for transportation equipment,and to combine the increace in quantity with the adjustment of product structure.In this thesis, time varying parameter model is used to analyze the development of china's transport and communications industry in recent years and the pushing effect on transport and communications industry from economic growth under market economy system,and the result is as follows:(1) Supplies function dynamic equation logq=0.416*loglz(-2)+sv1*loggz(-2)+0.403*logry (3.40) (3.60) sv1=1.012*sv1(-1) (73.04)Q is the monthly sales revenue of the transport and communications industry, lz is the monthly average balance of circulating funds, gz is the average balance of net value of fixed assets,and ry is the average employment, sv1 is the sensitive degree of each point in time which the monthly sales revenue of the transport and communications industry affected by the average balance of net value of fixed assets,and also is the elasticity which usually said,sv1 is the time varying sequence. (2) Demand function dynamic equation logq=0.364*logck(-6)+0.595*logsr(-6)+sv1*loghyl(-6) (2.39) (3.12) sv1=0.964*sv1(-1) (17.19)Q is the monthly sales revenue of the transport and communications industry, ck is the monthly export amount of our country, sr is the per capital disposable income of urban households,and hyl is the total monthly freight Ton-kilometers.As the above, sv1 is the sensitive degree of each point in time which the monthly sales revenue of the transport and communications industry affected by the total monthly freight Ton-kilometers,and also is the elasticity which usually said,sv1 is the time varying sequence.We have done an empirical research on the development condition of our country's transport and communications industry in recent years and the contributions which the economical growth propels to this industry.And finally the empirical reasearch above-mentioned shows that the monthly average balance of circulating funds, the average employment and the average balance of net value of fixed assets all have created some pulling power to the supply for the transportation equipments,especially the monthly average balance of circulating funds and the average employment have a bigger pulling power,and the pulling power of the average balance of net value of fixed assets is obviously increased.In the demand function dynamic equation, the empirical reasearch shows that the monthly export amount of our country, the per capital disposable income of urban households, the total passager-kilometers and the total monthly freight Ton-kilometers have created some pulling power to the demand for the transportation equipments,especially the per capital disposable income of urban households have the biggest pulling power,and the monthly export amount of our country have the second pulling power,and these tow factors have the absolute superiority comparing with the other factors. Since 2006 the central authorities have started to study the reform of the income distribution system and the standard of the income assignment, and started to safeguard the most general people's benefits and to enhance their income.therefore,as the income of our country's inhabitants increases, our country's transport and communications industry will have a brightly future. As for the exports, the export amount of our country will possibly receive some influences beceuse the currency exchange rate of RMB has been appreciating,therefore, the transport and communications industry will possibly receive some influences. |
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