| Reviewing the recent economic development in China, we found that in order to control the economic, the center banks operated a series of measures and many financial tools. But the effect of the monetary policy was weak. As a result, the issue of monetary policy had been focused commonly by scholars in China. Monetary policy transmission mechanism was the important part of monetary policy theory and means a lot to research it. The paper mainly researched the credit channel of monetary policy transmission. The credit channel describes this situation, that under realistic conditions of asymmetric information, loans from financial intermediaries are"special", so the loans and bonds were different and substitutable. The change of monetary supply would affect the credit funds and then would influence the investment and consuming and finally change the production of a country.In the first part of the paper, the theory of monetary policy transmission was reviewed and the related researched on monetary policy transmission mechanism in and abroad are described. The credit rationing, the bank leading mechanism and the balance sheet mechanism are introduced in the paper.In the following part, the monetary policy transmission credit was analyzed in detail. Because of asymmetric information in the market in China , Chinese enterprises mainly depended on bank credit because of external finance premium. They would cost much more if they obtain funds through issuing bonds and others than that through banks. And the finance department in the government effects the credit supply through many methods such as reserve rate, including the excess reserve rate,Rediscount policy ,open market operations and other financial instruments. Consequently, the prerequisite of the existence of credit is brought up, which satisfies China, and the credit channel is the main channel in China through the analysis on the description of recent credit policy.In the article,it carried on the real diagnosis analysis using the VEC model to our country economical quarter data. I took money supply M2 and M1 on behalf of currency channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism. The sum of financial organizations'loans variable LOAN represented the credit channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism. Macro economy most important GDP and cost of consumer goods index CPI was selected to examine the effect of the monetary policy's execution.First the various time series quarter data which uses for the model were the quarter adjusted, as well as changing the nominal data into the actual data using the cost of consumer goods index. Next ADF examination was carried. Finally indicates the data steadily for the first difference, therefore used Johansen examination to processes the non-steady variable. Through Johansen test, we obtained the conclude that the credit channel and the currency channel all had the effect to our country monetary policy, but certainly not to be able to differentiate which kind of channel function effect be more remarkable. Thereupon, has further adopted VEC in the model and Granger causes .We could conclude that LOAN had the stronger explanation ability to our country GDP, M1 or M2 also had the certain explanation ability to our country GDP, but the credit channel had the obvious relative importance. LOAN was the Granger reason of CPI, but not very obvious. M1 or M2 were the Granger reason of CPI , but the level was not obvious, but could surpass LOAN, indicated the comparison between the currency channel and credit channel, the currency channel was obvious in the influence of the price.Obtained the conclusion below through the model analysis:First, in our country, the monetary policy had functioned together through two ways which was the currency channel and the credit channel to affect the economic target variable.Secondly, by comparison from the credit channel and the currency channel, we found the conduction that credit channel has a vital role in o monetary policy in our country.Thirdly, from the empirical model analysis would found the result certainly did not affect obviously which described in the theoretical analysis. After analyzing its reason, first is some hindrance factors which caused the Chinese credit channel and enabled the transmission process not play the role. Next is the data processing question.Thereupon in the article finally, analyzed with a greater length to analysis the reason why the monetary policy credit channel was blocked .Mainly had five aspects:1. Influence from the structure of financial organ. At present, commercial banks'structural density was relatively small .The coverage was lower than the overseas level. The bank structure was unreasonable, small financial organ proportion was excessively low, All those factors caused the credit channel was excessively narrow or the channel was insufficient.2. Influence of the state-owned commercial bank behavior. The Chinese financing structure still was the bank leadership, the bank loan accounts for an greater proportion in enterprise exterior financing ,but the state-owned commercial bank monopolizes too concentrate to block the credit channel effect, displayed too concentrates including the credit organization, the loan management jurisdiction, the loan deadline as well as loans the region.3. Influence of the commercial bank credit withers , the behavior of "pities in the loans". As a result of the commercial bank system , there was massive not good properties and not good loans in the history ,For its own security, the bank took the massive drives to measure in the absorption deposit but control too much to provide the loans .Consequently had the phenomenon that " pitied in the loans" or " cautious in the loans", which caused massive difference between the deposit the loan, and attenuated the effect of the credit channel.4. Influence of dual asymmetric situation between the demand and the attainable of the credit. The big enterprise and the small business were asymmetrical, and the real economical and the dummy economy were asymmetrical. The credit and the expense credit in big enterprise were relatively easy, but those in the small business and individual family were quite difficultly. 5. Influence of the monetary system in China. Such as not perfect in the Chinese credit system, Breaking a promise did not have the legal sanction , and caused a lot of affecting the Action of Borrowers. The cost of breaking a promise was somewhat low , thus creates the massive moral risk and the credit risk. The state-owned enterprise's bankruptcy was out of control and the mechanism was not perfect, caused the creditor's legitimate rights and interests could not be effectively protected. The fluidity of loan collateral reduced measure in the bank solution reversion choice and moral risk. |
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