Research On Several Path By Which The Population Aging's Influence On Effectiveness Of China's Monetary Policy

The finance can be seen as the core of a modern economy, and how the financial section performs affects the whole national economy. There is no doubt that the research on effectiveness of the monetary policy has a far-forth significance.The research on effectiveness of the monetary policy is also the focus that a numerous experts and monetary authorities in domestic and from international pay attention to, especially the factors that affect the effectiveness of the monetary policy. And experts show large enthusiasm to the research of the factors that affect effectiveness of the monetary policy. But, people usually search for the reasons from the economic and financial system when they analyze these factors. The researches in this aspect are not only numerous, but also very mature already. There is no few research on the factors outside the economic and financial system themselves. Of course, the demographic reason, especially the arrival and deepening of the population aging, is an important factor which can't be neglectable.At the same time , the influence ,which the population aging put on the effectiveness of the monetary policy has already become a focus that our national monetary authority concerns. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China , once stated in April 2004 at Beijing: "In examining the monetary policy transmission mechanism, we should pay attention to the population aging and the social security system's influence on implementing effects of the monetary policy", "In order to make the monetary policy function effectively, we should solve the problem of pension debt and other implicit fiscal deficit properly. "The thesis analyzes and studies the problem primarily in three aspects.The structure, contents and methods are arranged as follows:ⅠIntroduction First, we introduce the situation of the population aging at present briefly, that is, 1 our country has been in the initial stage of the population aging; 2 the main characteristics of the population aging in our country.Secondly, we introduce the background and significance of the thesis in detail.Finally, we introduce the structure, methods and logical thinking of the thesis briefly, also the innovation and shortage of the thesis.ⅡResearch on the influence, which the population aging put on consuming and saving behavior of the residents in our country.First, we introduce the saving situation of our country briefly. The savings of our country has still stayed at a high level since the reform and open. We analyze specifically the high savings of China in the aspects of demographic structure and social security system in this chapter.Secondly, we introduce the research on saving behavior of the residents from domestic and international expects, including the life cycle theory, permanent income hypothesis and precautionary saving theory mainly. At the same time, some domestic researches are also introduced briefly.Then, at the basis of lifecycle theory, we establish an overlapping generation model that can include the main characteristics of endowment insurance system in China to analyze the relation between the demographic structure at present, endowment insurance and China's high saving. We discovered that the population aging generally will encourage the residents to improve savings.Finally, the demographic structure at present causes a high savings of the residents. This makes the central bank's monetary policy, which is to lower savings and improve consuming, not acquire the expected results.ⅢResearch on the problem of population aging and implicit pension debtFirst, we introduce the significance of understanding and solving the implicit pension debt problem in China.Secondly, we introduce the"empty account"problem of China's pension fund briefly and population aging's influence on China's pension fund debt.Then, we highlight the problem of our country's implicit pension debt. We give several representative definition of the implicit pension debt from our country's experts at present, and a definition that can describe the characteristics of implicit pension debt briefly. And then, we summarize the reasons for China's implicit pension debt briefly. Furthermore, we introduced several representative estimated results of our implicit pension debt. Although the specific figures are different from each other because of the calculation caliber, model and method which the calculation is based on, the calculation point in time, the parameters'differenceses from each other, however, there is on the whole a big implicit pension debt undoubtedly. Here, we also give a rough estimating framework of China's implicit pension debt.Finally, according to the population aging, there will be a more and more debt of pension released annually. The government had to inject input in the form of an annual financial to make the social endowment insurance fund maintain the balance. The government has had to face more financial deficit and risk. Finally, the independence of the central bank's monetary policy implementing will be intervened by the governments'directly or in disguise overdrawing from the central bank. This obviously impacts on the effectiveness of the central bank's monetary policy.ⅣResearch on population aging and the country's capital market flowsIn this respect, first of all, we make some simple analysis and statement of Chinese capital market's current situation and the capital market flows under the population aging.Secondly, we use an overlapping generation model to analyze the effect of changing demographic structure on the investment flows in and out of the capital market, that is, what demographic structure will lead to a net inflow of the capital market and what demographic structure will lead to a net outflow of the capital market.After deriving the influencing factor of every crowd's (the elderly,middle-aged, young) quantity to the leakaget, we calculated the specific forms of the three crowds'influencing factor according to China's current data. We conclude that the increasing of elderly's number in period t will lead to an increase in the net outflow of capital markets; the increasing of middle-aged's number in period t will to an increasing in the net inflow of capital markets.Finally, the net outflows of capital markers derived from population aging , not only cause the central bank's monetary policy but also affected the development of china's stock market and the expansion of the scale. This affects the effectiveness transmitting in stock market of the central bank's monetary policy.ⅤConclusionThe innovations are:⑴we can take a new perspective to look at the impact of the population aging;⑵enabled us to understand the factors affecting the effectiveness of China's monetary policy more comprehensive;⑶through mathematical modeling, we inspected the relation between demographic structure and Chinese residents'savings quantitively. This will help us to a more profound look at the causes of current China's high savings.⑷through the establishment of the mathematical model, we inspected the relation between the demographic structure's changes and capital flows in a new perspective, and give a certain conclusion based on China's current data. This helps us understand the low proportion of indirect financing in China in a new perspective.