Study On Land Use Change And Their Driving Forces In Chongqing City

Land Use /Cover Change (LUCC) is one of the most important components arid major causes to global environmental changes, and study on it is always the frontier and the hot spot of the geography research after entering the new century . The research of driving force, which is the reason of Land use change, is the core of Land use change research. In 1995, "International Geographer-Biosphere Programme" (IGBP) and "The International Human Dimensions Programme" (IHDP) jointly promoted the LUCC project "Scientific research Plan", in which the important research content is to reveal the mechanism of global land use change through the regional cases. By selecting the land use data from 1996 to 2005 and correlative stastistical data, this article statistically analyzed the recent ten year's land use change of Chongqing City, revealed the socioeconomic driving forces which have affected the land use change/cover in the past ten years, and provided the decision-making basis for Chongqing City to be "The forth economic increasement pole".Chongqing city is located in the union place between east and west in our country, and is the economic center of upper reaches of the Yangtze river. Since Chongqing city became the municipality directly under the Central Government in 1997,the development of economy is rapid, GDP have grown from more than 100 billion in 1997 to more than 300 billion in 2006, the gross of economic output doubled, the yearly average rate of growth is 10.0% and towers above 0.8 percentage point compared to the same time province yearly average rate of growth. Chongqing city has become one of the most rapid provinces in economy development .As the metropolis of the China southwest, Chongqing's development has functioned on West Exploitation ,which is a connecting link between east and west .Strenthening the research on the Chongqing land use change is helpful to understand the factors and mechanism of land use change, and through adjusting the human socioeconomic activity, it urges the Chongqing to use land reasonably and enter the track of the land sustainable development.This article firstly analyzed the condition of the domestic and foreign land use change research, elaborated the recent progresses in land use change research that international and our country have obtained, and emphatically introduced the domestic and foreign land use change driving force research and the model study. On this basis , this article researched the land use system and the mechanism of affecting land use change from the perspectives of the system theory, the sustainable development theory and the landscape ecology theory, and established the solid theory foundation for the land use change and driving force research.By selecting the Chongqing land use data from 1996 to 2005 ,this research has conducted the detailed research on the Chongqing land use dynamic change,driving mechanism and the future 10 years simulation forecastand. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) In the land use space and time change research aspect. In past ten years, the cultivated land reduces nearly 300,000 hm~2.The field area increased 73,907 hm~2. The forest land area increases more than 260,000 hm~2, the increased range achieves 8%. The grass area increases 35,698 hm~2 . The construction land in past 10 years have increased 83024.21 hm~2. The waters area have increased 30747.75hm~2; The unutilized land in past 10 years have reduced more than 180,000 hm~2.(2) In the land use change ratio research aspect. In Chongqing past 10 years the ratio of land use change is big, the yearly average rate of change achieves 1.10%. The biggest change is the garden plot, the annual variation ratio achieves 4.58%. The cultivated land, forest landthe annual variation rate only has 1.17% and 0.88% because of their big cardinal number. The construction land in the annual variation ratio also have achieved 1.65%, the pastures annual variation ratio also have achieved 1.77%, the waters annual variation ratio have achieved 1.22%, the unutilized land annual variation ratio also have achieved 1.22%.(3) In the land use change driving forces aspect. Research area natural environment condition relatively sole, not play an important role to region's land use change. Theres, social economy have developed in fast speed, in addition the study time is short, therefore, the research period forces research area land use change driving forces factor mainly come from the social economy factor. The population growth, the economical development, the urbanization, the policy factor , this four main social factors have affected the research area land use change.(4) In the driving forces of the cultivated land respect. Through gray correlation analysis, the results have indicated that the non-agricultural population growth, the urbanization level and the total agricultural output profit chage are the three major factors in cultivated land change forces factor, their correlation level is 0.76726,0.73215,0.71691.(5) In the driving forces of construction land respect. According the social economy statistical data from 1996 to 2005, through the principal components analysis , using SPSS statistical analysis software, obtained the actuation factor correlation coefficient matrix, the characteristic value and each principal components technical progress factor and the accumulation technical progress factor.The former two principal components accumulation technical progress factor achieves 99.63%, are completely onsonant with the analysis requirements. According to the correlation between the first principal component and the variables,the eight factors have correlation with the construction land. These factors may sum up as the population growth, the urbanization level and the economy development three major factors. The second principal components have a powerful correlation with the urbanization rate,the population growth, explained these two factor is mainly leads the second principal components.(6) In the land use change simulation and deductive research aspect. The article have used the gray system and the linear regression models to forecast the cultivated land and the construction land respectively, the results have indicated that to 2015 cultivated land will be 1971282.79 hm~2, the construction land will be 660425.28 hm~2. Using the linear regression to forecast in 2015 cultivated land will be 1963756.62 hm~2, the construction land will be 663887.85 hm~2.