The Market Share Forecast To Fast Moving Consumer Goods

Going with the rapid development of logistic and retail trade in china, companies in FMCG(Fast moving consumer goods) industry are confronting ardent competition. The scale economy, market ability and the advance of management quality will bring higher avails to the companies with the improvement of mark share. How to make forecast scientifically to the market share, to maximize the return on the investment of market in whole frame of marketing becomes a question that business managers have to answer.Hence, it is essential to answer the question that to forecast the market share. The article contacts the theory and experience to analyze the main factors of which the brand, price, promotions, market channel, ad affect the market share of FMCG. from the angle that companies drive the product to sell. With the attraction market share theory as the foundation, the article analyzes the boundary and estimate of Multinomial Logit model and Multiplicative competitive interaction model, attempt to switch the model to regression model instead of maximum likelihood estimate; discusses the calculate method of brand value, price elasticity and promotion elasticity; and expatiates the data form and the forecast flow of model as well.Finally, with the Multinomial Logit model as the method, we carry an application to the purchase data of consumer, and study the effects of brand, price and promotions on market share of women's sanitary towel. The result show that most brand value affects the market share evidently; the influence of pile promotion and discount promotion are relatively high, but the gift promotion and personnel promotion are relatively low, and the price is very low and indistinctive. The application shows that the model is suitable to the collected panel data, and this means that applying this model to analyze simple data can effectively forecast the market share. When the variables of market share change, we can utilize the disposed result of Multinomial Logit model to forecast the change of market share.We have do much availability work to exploit the forecast of market share on fast moving consumer goods in our country. The studies are conductive to business managers making the best marketing strategy and optimizing the company resource.