A Research On The Risk Management Of New Model Localization Project

In the last few years, with more and more world-known motor giants rushing into China and building up their joint-venture automobile companies, a lot of world-branded motors have been localized and put into China's automobile markets. In a result, China's automobile industry has got a rapid development. But for those companies the risk of localizing a new model in China is also increasing proportionally because of some facts such as the rising of oil price, the impact of joining WTO, the aggravated automobile market competition, the gradually maturing and rationalizing Chinese consumers, and so on. It's becoming more and more important for those joint-venture automobile companies that how to manage the risk of new model localization project by using knowledge and theory in Management Science area.The main clue of the paper is the procedure of project risk management. Firstly, based on the overview and analysis of the current worldwide research of project risk management in automobile industry, the relevant problems that should be researched and solved both in theoretical area and practical area has been discovered. Then the definition of project risk and project risk management has been given and the meaning, characteristic and course of project risk management have been described, which offers a theoretical basis to the following research. In the following chapter, taking a new model localization project(A07) being carried out in Guangzhou Honda Automobile Company as a case, the project risk management's three key processes of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk monitoring and control has been studied, and a widely usable risk management frame has been built up. The frame can be described as follows: firstly, in risk identification process, the risk of the new model localization project have been defined into 8 index as macroeconomic risk, political risk, continuous development risk, WTO risk, marketing risk, management risk, industrial chain risk, marketing risk and these risk index have been innovatively divided into macro-risk index and micro-risk index. Then a project risk evaluation model has been established. Secondly, in risk evaluation process, not only the qualitative analysis of those risk index have been carried out but also the quantitative analysis of those risk index and the overall risk in AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method with a reasonable result. Finally, the risk response and risk monitoring and control have been studied, and the risk response strategy of those risk index with high risk ratio have specifically analyzed.