Study On Risk Management Of Development Project Of Qicailantian Leisure And Sightseeing Park In Longyan City

Longyan city,located in mountainous area of western Fujian province,has rich ecological tourism resources.In recent years,the government of Longyan city attaches great importance to the development and utilization of rural tourism resources.However,many tourism projects had not been fully demonstrated before construction,which resulted in obvious risks in the development and management of these projects.In this paper,based on relevant theories and methods of project risk management,the risk management problems of Qicailantian ecological agriculture leisure sightseeing park of Longyan city were studied.The risk factors system of this project was established.The weight and probability of risk factors were evaluated using the quantitative methods of Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation.The main research work of the paper is summarized as follows:First of all,based on relevant data of Qicailantian ecological agriculture leisure sightseeing park of Longyan city,including the regional tourism planning,project planning,project feasibility report,etc.,the risk factors were identified and the system of risk factors was established,using the methods of interviewing and questionnaire surveying of experts.The risks of this project mainly include five types: political risk,social risk,economic risk,operational and managemental risk,and environmental risk.Secondly,based on 32 copies of effective questionnaires,the method of analytic hierarchy process(AHP)was applied in calculating the importance degree of each risk factor for each questionnaire.The mean of 32 weight vectors was taken as the risk weight vectors of the project.The weight of political risk,social risk,economic risk,operational and managemental risk and environmental risk is 0.1561,0.1346,0.1561,0.1346,0.2415 respectively.By using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the comprehensive risk of the project is evaluated through the establishment of fuzzy relation matrix and fuzzy evaluation calculation.The overall risk value of the project is 2.7175,which is at the medium risk level.Finally,according to the evaluation results,combined with the project data and related social economic data of Longyan city,the countermeasures of avoiding or reducing risks were suggested to ensure that the project is successful.In addition,the implementation processes of risk management of the project were illustrated.The processes include: making a plan of risk management,identifying risks of the project,analyzing and evaluating risks of the project,developing a plan of risks response and evaluating the effect of risks response.