The Research On Risk Early-Warning Model On Commercial Bank Introducing Oversea Strategic Investor

The commercial bank is the core of modern financial system. As the important constituent of our country's opening to outside, the domestic banking industry has happened essential changes not only concerning the extent but also the depth. From our entry the WTO, there has been the great development in every aspects such as operating management, establishing institution and introducing invest. Especially the oversea investment sharing our banking industry is upsurging, which has been an heatest topic in the financial field.Introducing oversea strategic investors is not only benefit to introducing the oversea advanced managing experience and the innovative pattern, improve the ability of risk management and innovation, but also helps domestic banks to advance the property system reconstruct, establish the favorable company fathering structure, which is just the key of the banking industry's reform. However, we still cann't ignore the risk from it. In the course of playing chess with the oversea strategic investors, how to improve the consciousness of risk management, and keep away the risk effectively, is an important subject related to the safety of the finance.This thesis starts with analyzing the current situation of banks'opening to outside and risk management, and expound the risk early-warning's method,function and goal; Second on the foundation of the analysis of relevant research situation of the domestic and international, find out the problems and deficiency of our risk evaluation and early-warning; Then based on the current situation of commercial banks introducing oversea strategic invest, analyses the benefits and the risks brought by this activity, and bring forward the necessary to establish Risk Early–Warning Model. Therefore, based on the foundation of existing research, the thesis introducing certain sensitive factors into the dynamic monitor of risk management, perfect the early-warning indexes system. Then it bring forward to adopt the Principal Component Analysis method to evaluate commercial bank risk degree, and uses Two-Independent-Samples-Test to select the indexes which are proved to have differences between the two samples; then, the article uses BP neural-network to build risk early-warning model in Commercial Bank according to the selected key indexes; At last; the article gives a demonstration analysis to test the risk early-warning model; Finally, the paper gives some suggestions on enhancing risk management in the new period for commercial bank.In a word, the building of the risk early-warning model on commercial bank introducing oversea strategic investors provides new thinking and method for single commercial bank's risk management in the process of dealing with overseas investment. Contemporarily, it has an important meaning to improve the validity of risk management task in the special period of financial reform.