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Research And Application Of Industrial Economic Monitoring And Early Warning Model

Posted on:2012-09-28Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:P E ZhouFull Text:PDF
GTID:2189330335961572Subject:Computer application technology
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
With the rapid development of Internet and information technology, economic early warning and early warning system have been gaining more and more attention. Economic development has always alternated between prosperity and depression, and adoption of early warning models to predict economic development has become a research hotspot. Meanwhile, the emergence of warning model combining various methods has made traditional models more precise and applicable thus it was widely applied in practice.This dissertation first analyzes the status and trend of the economic early warning system development, and elaborates on principal component analysis, artificial neural network, and prosperity early warning model, etc.Afterwards, based on previous experience, a mixed prosperity early warning model is proposed, which combines principal component analysis, artificial neural network and early warning signal lamp system. The artificial neural network is applied to predict the development trend of the early warning index integrated in the prosperity early warning model. Principal component analysis is used to simplify the input layer of the artificial neural network model. Early warning signal lamp system is adopted for the real-time record of the overall status of local economy. The combination of these three models can maximize their respective advantages so as to provide a scientific and effective support to decision makers. In the meanwhile, to address the difficulty in determining the threshold of the early warning signal system, a comprehensive method of determining the warning threshold is put forward.In the last part of this dissertation, the proposed prosperity early warning model is applied to the monitoring and warning system of a prefecture-level city. This dissertation describes the main features of the early warning system, and demonstrates the theoretical and practical value of this system by yearbook data.
Keywords/Search Tags:Prosperity Early Warning Model, Early Warning System, Artificial Neural Network, Early Warning Index, Principal Component Analysis
PDF Full Text Request
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